Overview:
This report is a companion to the latest FTTP report. In this report we will use the forecasts in the new FTTP report to develop equipment requirements and fiber cable requirements for FTTP.
The RBOCs, all three (now that the AT&T/BellSouth merger has been consummated) to greater or lesser extents, are now in the process of rolling out FTTP. Verizon has a monumental effort underway, and the other two are in various stages (lab tests, minor deployments or preparing massive rollouts) of deployment. The RBOCs have actually moved into the video business in a massive way. As forecast in our 2005 and 2006 reports, two of the RBOCs are in the residential TV delivery business. Several relatively new technologies have been deployed in their entries into that business, and the RBOCs will use just about every imaginable combination of those technologies to achieve their objectives.
The latest incarnation of our efforts to keep our clients completely up-to-date on this subject was the companion report to this one, “FTTP – The New Standard and How It Is Changing – Already!”
This latest report includes:
- The substantial progress to date for FTTP;
- The changes we see coming for FTTP from new organizational structures;
- Changes we see coming for the architecture;
- Our forecasts for the future, especially as relates to details of equipment and cable requirements.
Table of Contents
TABLE OF CONTENTS
TABLE OF FIGURES
LIGHTWAVE SERIES OF REPORTS
General Reports on the Network
General Market Reports
Specific Systems Reports
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
This Report
Background
INTRODUCTION
WHAT ARE PONS?
The PON Design
Status of PON
Advantage and Disadvantages of PON
Types of PONs
BPON
EPON
GPON
The PON in the First RFP
GPONs
Architectures to Meet the Needs
MARKET FORECAST
Forecast Methodology
Verizon Plan
Verizon - Physical Description
Verizon - Size of Rollout
AT&T Plan
AT&T – Physical Description
AT&T – Size of Rollout
BellSouth Plan
BellSouth – Physical Description
Pre-Merger
Post-Merger
Qwest Plan
FTTP
Other Architectures
Future Plans
Comparing the Plans of the RBOCs
Summary of Announced Plans
Verizon
AT&T
Bell South
Qwest
Summary information on the Announced Plans
Announced Plans – Quantitative Analysis
Announced Plans – Size
FORECAST FOR FTTP
Forecasts for Deployment
AT&T
Verizon
BellSouth
Qwest
Deployment Forecast Summary
AT&T
Verizon
BellSouth
Qwest
Forecast size of Deployments
Forecast Technologies by Type
Forecast PONs – GPON vs. BPONs
FTTP EQUIPMENT AND FIBER CABLE FORECAST
Equipment and Fiber Items Considered
Equipment Items
PONs
OLTs and Splitters Forecasts
RBOC Plans
IGI Forecast
Subscriber Units – ONUs
RBOC Plans
IGI Forecast
Outside Plant Equipment
RBOC Plans
IGI Forecast
Fiber Cable
Fibers – Current RBOC Plans
Fibers – IGI Forecast RBOC Plans
Fibers Required – Summary and Comparison of Plans vs. Forecast
Vendors Listing
Summary of Vendors
Detailed Listing of Vendors
ACTERNA
Adtran
Advanced Fibre Communications Inc. (AFCI) (Now Tellabs)
Alcatel
Alloptic Inc
Amino Technologies plc
AOC Technologies
Avanex Corporation
Broadlight
Calix
Cisco
Corrigent
Entrisphere, Inc.
Ericsson
Fiberxon
Finisar Corporation
FlexLight Networks
Fujitsu
Genone3 Technologies, Inc.
LightComm Technology
Lucent/Alcatel
Marconi
Microsoft
Motorola
NeoPhotonics
Nortel
OFS
O-Net Communications Ltd
Oplink Communications, Inc.
Optiviva Inc.
Optical Solutions
Osaki Electric Co., Ltd.
Paceon (Mitsubishi)
Passav
Quantum Bridge Communications
Salira Optical Network Systems
Scientific-Atlanta
Siemens
Tandberg, Ltd.
Tellabs
Terawave
Tut Systems
Vinci Systems, Inc.
Wave7 Optics
Zhone Technologies
Table of Figures
Figure 1, PON Basic Arrangement
Figure 2, RFP PON – Central Office Portion
Figure 3, RFP PON – Outside Plant Portion
Figure 4, RFP PON Service Assignments
Figure 5, BPON/GPON Comparison
Figure 6, Typical GPON
Figure 7, Bandwidth Needs vs. Capabilities
Figure 8, Equipment and cable in the report in the Report
Figure 9, Announced Plans Summary Chart
Figure 10, Announced Plans – Annual HPs
Figure 11, Announced Plans - HPs Cumulative Passed vs. Served
Figure 12, Announced Plan - Comparison to H-S Accesses
Figure 13, Forecast Homes Passed Cumulative - All Technologies
Figure 14, Forecast Homes Passed Annually - By Company - All Technologies
Figure 15, FTTX vs. H-S Accesses vs. US Households
Figure 16, Technology Type Cumulative - Forecast
Figure 17, Forecast Technologies - Homes Passed - Annual
Figure 18, Forecast Homes Passed - PONs vs. Other Technologies
Figure 19, Total PONS Forecast - RBOCs – Cumulative
Figure 20, Moving from BPONs to GPONs
Figure 21, Forecast BPONs vs. GPONs by Year
Figure 22, Verizon PON Forecast
Figure 23, AT&T PON Forecast
Figure 24, Equipment and cable in the report in the Report
Figure 25, Currently Planned PONs
Figure 26, Forecast for PON Implementation
Figure 27, Forecast Access Networks by Architecture
Figure 28, OLTs - BPONs - RBOC Plans
Figure 29, Table for GPONs OLTs - RBOC Plans
Figure 30, Table for all PONs - OLTs - RBOC Plans
Figure 31, OLTs - BPONs – IGI Forecast
Figure 32, Table for GPONs OLTs – IGI Forecast
Figure 33, Table for all PONs - OLTs – IGI Forecast
Figure 34, BPON Subscriber Units - RBOC Plans
Figure 35, GPON Subscriber Units - RBOC Plans
Figure 36, All PON Subscriber Units - RBOC Plans
Figure 37, BPON Subscriber Units – IGI Forecast
Figure 38, GPON Subscriber Units – IGI Forecast
Figure 39, All PON Subscriber Units – IGI Forecast
Figure 40, Outside Plant Equipment - BPONS - RBOCs Plans
Figure 41, Outside Plant Equipment - GPONS - RBOCs Plans
Figure 42, Outside Plant Equipment – All PONS - RBOCs Plans
Figure 43, Outside Plant Equipment - BPONS – IGI Forecast
Figure 44, Outside Plant Equipment - GPONS – IGI Forecast
Figure 45, Outside Plant Equipment – All PONS – IGI Forecast
Figure 46, Fibers Needed Current Plans
Figure 47, Forecast Fiber Used By Technology
Figure 48, Comparison of Plan vs. Forecast for Fiber Strand Requirements
Figure 49, Summary of Vendors |
