Market Studies

Broadband Access:
The Window to the Lightwave

Published: October 2002

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Overview:


"In order to make sure the economy grows, we must bring the promise of broadband technology to millions of Americans. My administration is promoting investment in broadband, but government at all levels should remove hurdles that slow the pace of deployment."
President George W. Bush
August 14, 2002, at the Waco, Texas, Economic Forum.

For years, technologists and futurists have speculated on a future characterized by the general availability of broadband access. That time has finally come! As discussed in the report, virtually anyone in the USA has at least one option for broadband access. There are still many problems in terms of availability of competitive options, deployment issues, technical barriers, and determining how we will use this new availability, but the future is here!

This report is focused on the access portion of the Lightwave Network. As suggested by its title, it covers all aspects of broadband access. This report includes telephony wired networks, CATV networks, passive optical networks (PONs), and radio-based networks. A major portion of the report is devoted to the discussion of market drivers, and extensively detailed market forecasts. These forecasts will be presented in terms of equipment market expenditures, the unit growth of various types of accesses, and total network traffic. It is directed at the technologies and business issues involved in providing access to the miracle of the optical network, i.e., "A Window to the Lightwave".

In this report, the impacts of the Internet traffic deluge on access networks are fully discussed and illustrated with examples. Transmission engineering and traffic engineering issues are illustrated, and the history of the current designs is traced to provide perspective. This design information also helps in understanding the overall network picture by providing links to other major network sectors.

As shown in the following chart, broadband access is becoming a major factor of American life.

(Click Chart To Enlarge)

In addition to the market information, the report includes extensive discussion of the technologies involved in the various types of access networks, including telephony type networks, cable TV networks, PONs and wireless approaches. It also provides a discussion of the primary technologies (xDSL and Cable modems used on these networks. Extensive listings and discussion of products is provided for the major vendors in each of the product categories.

Special features of this report include:
Extensive information on traffic calculations for DLCs and for DSLAMs Numerical examples are used extensively to illustrate the approaches.
• An Appendix that outlines general information on how to calculate data traffic impacts in many circumstances.
• Comprehensive economic models for comparing various approaches to providing the access network..
• This is a "Lightwave Series" report, and it is consistent in every way, including terminology, data, and forecasts with other reports from that series.

Table of Contents


INTRODUCTION

MARKET DRIVERS

  • THIRST FOR BROADBAND ACCESS
  • UNIT GROWTH DRIVES ACCESS NETWORKS
  • RETURN TO PRE-RECESSION GROWTH LEVELS FOR H-S ACCESSE
  • UNIT FORECASTS FOR H-S ACCESS UNITS
    • Cable Modem Unit Forecasts
    • xDSL Unit Forecasts
    • Radio-Based High-Speed Line Unit Forecasts
      • Fixed Wireless Units
      • Satellite-Based Service Units
    • Total High-Speed Line Unit Forecast
  • TRAFFIC FORECASTS FOR H-S ACCESSES
    • Impact of H-S Access Traffic
    • "Up Network" Traffic Implications of High-Speed Accesses


PRICE FORECASTS

  • ACCESS PRICE FORECAST
    • Wire Line
    • CATV- Cable Modem
    • Radio-Based Options
      • MMDS
      • LMDS
      • Satellite


MARKET FORECASTS

  • ACCESS NETWORKS
    • xDSL-Based Networks – Market Forecasts
    • Cable Modem-Based Networks – Market Forecasts
    • H-F Access – Market Forecasts – Fixed and Satellite
  • TOTAL ACCESS NETWORK MARKET FORECASTS
  • ACCESS NETWORK UNITS MARKET
  • OTHER ACCESS UNITS
    • Residential Gateways
    • Residential/SOHO Networks
  • SUMMARY OF BROADBAND ACCESS MARKET FORECASTS


BROADBAND ACCESS NETWORKS DESIGNS

  • COMPETING TECHNOLOGIES FOR ACCESS NETWORKS
    • Telephony or TDM
    • CATV
    • PON
    • Radio-Based
  • TELEPHONY OR TDM DESIGN
    • The ‘Pure Copper’ Environment
    • The Electronic Serving Area
    • Adding Fiber to Electronic Serving Area Design
    • Fiber to the "X"
      • FTTH
      • The NGDLC (Next Generation Digital Loop Carrier)
      • TR-303 vs. TR-008
    • Operations Implications of DLC Design
    • Economic Drivers for DLC Access Design
    • Characterization of Today’s Wire-line/Fiber Broadband Access
  • THE CATV DESIGN
    • Classical CATV
    • CATV Basic Design
    • Two-Way Systems
    • The Fiber Trunked CATV System
    • Fiber to the Node
    • Modern HFC and Cable Modems
    • Characterization of Current CATV Networks
  • THE PON DESIGN
    • Status of PON
    • Advantage and Disadvantages of PON


BROADBAND ACCESS TECHNOLOGIES

  • CABLE MODEMS
  • XDSL
  • RADIO-BASED ALTERNATIVES FOR BROADBAND ACCESS
    • MMDS
    • LMDS
    • Satellite



REVIEW OF VENDORS OF BROADBAND ACCESS EQUIPMENT

  • WIRE-LINE VENDORS
    • Summary of Wire-line Vendors
    • Wire-line Equipment Supplier Profiles
      • Accelerated Networks (See Occam Networks)
      • Advanced Fibre Communications
      • Alcatel
      • ANDA Networks
      • Catena Networks
      • Efficient Networks
      • Ensemble Communications
      • Ericsson
      • Hybrid Networks (now ioWave )
      • Lucent
      • Marconi (Reltec)
      • Nortel
      • Optical Solutions
      • PairGain (ADC)
      • Quantum Bridge
      • Siemens
  • CATV BROADBAND ACCESS EQUIPMENT VENDORS
    • Summary of CATV Access Vendors
    • CATV Equipment Supplier Profiles
      • ADC Telecommunications
      • Antec (Arris Network Technologies)
      • Artel
      • General Instruments (Motorola)
      • Harmonic Lightwave
      • Lucent
      • Philips
      • Scientific Atlanta
      • Synchronous Communications Inc. (Motorola)
  • RADIO-BASED BROADBAND ACCESS EQUIPMENT VENDORS
    • Summary of Radio-Based Access Vendors
    • Vendor Profiles
      • Adaptive Broadband Corp. (Axxcelera Broadband)
      • ADC Telecomm.
      • Alcatel
      • Cisco
      • Ensemble Communications
      • Hughes Network Systems
      • Hybrid Networks (ioWave)
      • Nortel
      • Netro Corp.
      • Telaxis Communications Corp.
      • Vyyo, Inc.


SUCCESS STRATEGIES

  • CARRIERS
  • VENDORS

STANDARDS ACTIVITIES

  • ADSL Forum
  • Cable Labs
  • Digital Audio Visual Council
  • Electronic Industries Alliance
  • IEEE-1394
  • IEEE- 802.3
  • T1
  • Universal ADSL Working Group
  • Video Electronics Standards Association



APPENDIX I – MATRIX OF PROVIDERS


APPENDIX II – LISTING OF ACRONYMS


APPENDIX III - DATA TRAFFIC FUNDAMENTALS

  • INTERNET TRAFFIC CALCULATIONS
    • Bits and Bytes
    • Transfer Rate
    • Busy Hour Traffic
    • Protocol Efficiencies
    • Statistical Multiplexing
    • Peaking
    • Summary of Concepts


APPENDIX IV – DSLAM TRAFFIC CALCULATION EXAMPLE

  • ILLUSTRATION OF DATA NODE CALCULATION
    • Transfer Rate and Busy Hour
    • Protocol Inefficiencies
    • Statistical Multiplexing
    • Peaking
  • A NUMERICAL EXAMPLE



APPENDIX V – TRAFFIC DESIGN FOR DLCS

  • TRAFFIC IMPLICATIONS OF THE INTERNET ON THE DLC NETWORK
  • DESIGN
  • DIAL-UP IMPACT
  • H-S ACCESS IMPACT



APPENDIX VI – ECONOMIC ANALYSIS AND MODEL FOR FIBER TO THE ‘X’

  • COST MODEL FOR FITL
  • COST TRADEOFF SUMMARY

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