Overview
If you are involved in forecasting, manufacturing, purchasing, or utilizing DWDM, ROADMs, network Routers and network Switches, this report will become your major tool. It offers forecasts for not only units (US and World-wide, 2018-2023) and market forecasts, but also breaks down those forecasts by a number of useful subdivisions.
Today's headlines, even in local newspapers, are full of discussions about events that will directly impact network requirements and equipment markets. Cloud Computing, Autonomous Vehicles, and 5G. are so pervasive that they are common in the mind of 'every-man'. The question for network operators, manufacturers, and everyone directly impacted by network requirements is if, how, and when these popular trends will affect my business. This report is dedicated to providing those answers, as well as to integrate those answers with the requirements expected from normal usage growth.
Each of these three "New Drivers" - Cloud Computing, Autonomous Vehicles, and 5G - is explained, examined and a forecast of network requirements impact is developed and presented. To reach an integrated forecast, a complete update to previous forecasts of network requirements through 2023 is developed.
This report is a continuation of IGI's Lightwave series. This series of reports was one of the earliest to identify the importance and applications of many network elements that underpin today's fiber communications systems. These include the ROADM (Reconfigurable Optical Add/Drop Multiplexer), the DWDM (Dense Wavelength Division Multiplex) and Terabit Routers. This work continues that trend, identifying the impacts of developing technologies on the communications network.
A survey of telecommunications experts is used as an input to this forecast update. This report will use the technique of asking the experts for their view of the future and then distilling from that input (some of which will be contradictory) a consistent, unified, organized view of the next five years of telecommunications in North America. This update is then combined with the expected affect from the new drivers to achieve the overall forecast.
As a part of the consideration of developing equipment forecasts the expected capital investments of major carriers are considered. Also, a new forecast for network traffic by market segment is developed. These inputs are used in developing the unit forecasts.
A US forecast and a World forecast are developed and presented for DWDM, ROADMs, network Routers and network Switches. These forecasts are presented as units forecasts as well as market forecast. In each equipment section a description of the equipment and its major applications are provided.
A review of major vendors of each type of equipment concludes the main section of the report. Appendixes are provided that give detail for the survey used in the report, as well as providing information on traffic concepts.
Table of Contents
NEW DRIVERS OF NETWORK AND EQUIPMENT MARKET: CLOUD COMPUTING, 5G, AND AUTONOMOUS VEHICLES WITH ANALYSIS AND FORECASTS, 2018-2023
1
THE LIGHTWAVE NETWORK SERIES OF REPORTS
9
The Lightwave Series of Reports
10
General Reports on the Network
11
General Market Reports
11
Specific Systems Reports
14
Cloud Computing Data Center
24
Cloud Computing Models
25
Infrastructure as a Service (IaaS):
25
Platform as a Service (PaaS):
25
Software as a Service (SaaS):
25
Impact of Cloud Computing on Network Requirements
26
Impact of 5G Network Equipment Requirements
31
Autonomous Vehicles Benefits
32
Current Versions of Autonomy
33
Issues with Autonomous Development
34
Impact of Autonomous Vehicles on Network Requirements
36
Summary of Impacts of New Drivers
36
TRAFFIC - THE OPTICAL NETWORK DEMAND
39
Four Major Sources of Traffic
41
Demand Growth - Summary
49
INVESTMENT - THE NETWORK SUPPLY
52
SUPPLY - CAPITAL INVESTMENT BY THE RBOCS
54
Importance of Wireline
55
AT&T Investment Plans and Forecast
56
Verizon Investment Plans and Forecast
57
EQUIPMENT DESCRIPTIONS AND FORECASTS
59
Equipment in the Report
59
First Generation ROADM — PLC-Based ROADMs
62
Colorless vs. Colored Ports
63
Benefits and Problems with PLC ROADMs
64
The Second-Generation ROADM - Blocker-Based ROADMs
64
Alternative Designs for Blockers
66
Problems with Blocker-based ROADMs
67
Third-Generation ROADM - Wavelength Selective Switch (WSS)
68
Problems and Benefits of WSS ROADMs
72
Fourth-Generation ROADMS - Edge ROADM (ER)
72
Summary of ROADM Features by Utilization
72
Summary of ROADM Types by Generation
73
Summary of ROADM Description
74
ROADM Systems - US Forecast
74
Types of DWDM - 100, 200 and 400 Gbps Channels
88
North American Forecast
89
IP and Ethernet Switches
95
North American Forecast
95
What is a Terabit Router?
100
Traditional Router Technology
101
Traditional Router Applications
103
North American Forecast
105
World Router Forecast
107
System Vendor Listing
111
Adva Optical Networking
111
Alcatel-Lucent Now Nokia
112
Kingfisher International
120
Marconi Corporation plc ( See Ericsson)
121
Meriton Networks (See Xtera)
121
Movaz Networks (ADVA)
123
Nortel (Now dissolved)
126
Performance Motion Devices
126
Tropic Networks (Alcatel-Lucent) - now Nokia
128
formerly Mahi Networks - formerly Photuris - formerly Meriton
129
APPENDIX I - THE SURVEY OF EXPERTS - FUTURE OF THE NETWORK
133
FORECAST FOR NETWORK OF THE FUTURE BASED ON SURVEY
137
The continuing forces of disruption
137
Access Network - Wired
137
The wired network will tend toward fiber
138
Access Network - Cellular
138
The cellular network will be forced to deploy 5G in some area
138
Transport facilities will become virtually all fiber
138
The Application area will see the most growth
139
SURVEY DESCRIPTION AND SAMPLE RAW RESULTS
139
View of Future Network 2016-2021- Base Case from Survey
140
APPENDIX II, TRAFFIC STATISTICS RELATIONSHIPS
154
APPENDIX III, DATA TRAFFIC FUNDAMENTALS
157
Internet Traffic Calculations
157
Protocol Efficiencies
159
Table of Figures
FIGURE 1, LIGHTWAVE NETWORK
10
FIGURE 2, HYPERSCALE DATACENTER GROWTH
23
FIGURE 3, GLOBAL DATA CENTER IP TRAFFIC GROWTH
26
FIGURE 4, WORLDWIDE 5G GROWTH
30
FIGURE 5, GLOBAL MOBILE DATA INCREASE
31
FIGURE 6, SOME CURRENT AUTONOMOUS VERSIONS
33
FIGURE 7, CHART OF PERCENTAGE IMPACTS OF NEW DRIVERS
37
FIGURE 8, TRAFFIC FORECAST - AAA LINES
43
FIGURE 9, MOBILE TRAFFIC FORECAST
44
FIGURE 10, MOBILE - WIRELINE ACCESS
45
FIGURE 11, INTERNATIONAL TRAFFIC
46
FIGURE 12, DATA TRAFFIC FROM MAJOR SOURCES
47
FIGURE 13, COMPARISON OF FOUR MAJOR SOURCES TO TOTAL TRAFFIC
48
FIGURE 14: INTERNET GROWTH RATE — NEW FORECAST
50
FIGURE 15, SUMMARY POINTS ON DEMAND
51
FIGURE 16, SUPPLY DEMAND RELATIONSHIP
52
FIGURE 17, NETWORK SHOWING WIRELESS ACCESS
55
FIGURE 18, WIRELESS DATA FORECAST
56
FIGURE 19, AT&T CAPITAL INVESTMENT 2009-2018 (2018 EST)
57
FIGURE 20, VERIZON CAPITAL EXPENDITURES 2015-2018 (2018 EST.)
57
FIGURE 21, EQUIPMENT COVERED IN THIS REPORT
59
FIGURE 22: ROADM GENERAL CONFIGURATION
60
FIGURE 23: PLC BASED ROADM
63
FIGURE 24: DETAILED ‘BLOCKER' ROADM ARCHITECTURE
65
FIGURE 25: ALTERNATIVE M-Z DIODE-BASED BROADCAST ROADM
67
FIGURE 26: WSS STRUCTURE
68
FIGURE 27: WSS-BASED ROADM
69
FIGURE 28: WSS-BASED MULTI-DEGREE NODE INTERCONNECTION
70
FIGURE 29: TYPICAL BLOCKER ROADM
70
FIGURE 30: WSS ADDED TO BLOCKER
71
FIGURE 31: SUMMARY OF ROADM TYPES BY UTILIZATION
73
FIGURE 32: FOUR GENERATIONS OF ROADMS
73
FIGURE 33, ROADM SYSTEM UNIT FORECAST - US
75
FIGURE 34, US MARKET - CHANGE IN PREDOMINANT TYPE OF ROADM OVER TIME
76
FIGURE 35, US EDGE ROADMS SYSTEMS
77
FIGURE 36, PRICE FORECAST FOR ROADMS
78
FIGURE 37, ROADMS MARKET FORECAST - US
78
FIGURE 38, ROADM MARKET - US - BY TECHNOLOGY
80
FIGURE 39, WORLD ROADM MARKET BY TYPE
81
FIGURE 40, WORLD ROADM MARKET
82
FIGURE 41, TYPICAL DWDM LAYOUT
85
FIGURE 42, METRO DWDM TYPICAL LAYOUT
86
FIGURE 43, METRO DWDM SYSTEM CHARACTERISTICS
87
FIGURE 44, NORTH AMERICAN DWM SYSTEM ENDS
89
FIGURE 45, NORTH AMERICAN DWDM MARKET
90
FIGURE 46, US DWDM FORECAST BY CHANNEL SPEED
91
FIGURE 47, DWDM - WORLD FORECAST - SYSTEM ENDS
92
FIGURE 48, WORLD DWDM MARKET
92
FIGURE 49, DWDM WORLD FORECAST BY SPEED
93
FIGURE 50, WORLD SWITCHES – UNITS
98
FIGURE 51, WORLD SWITCH MARKET
98
FIGURE 52, ROUTER LAYOUT
102
FIGURE 53, ROUTER APPLICATIONS
104
FIGURE 54, NORTH AMERICAN ROUTERS - TOTAL - UNITS - WITH NEW DRIVERS
105
FIGURE 55, NORTH AMERICAN ROUTERS TOTAL MARKET
106
FIGURE 56, NORTH AMERICAN ROUTER MARKET - BY TYPES
107
FIGURE 57, WORLD ROUTER FORECAST – UNITS
108
FIGURE 58, WORLD ROUTER MARKET – TOTAL
108
FIGURE 59, WORLD ROUTER MARKET - BY TYPES
110
FIGURE 60: TRAFFIC/SPEED RELATIONSHIPS
154
FIGURE 61: EXAMPLE OF VARIOUS TRAFFIC SIZES
155
FIGURE 62, MULTIPLES OF BYTE
156
FIGURE 63: NEW TRANSFER RATE FORECAST
158
FIGURE 64: SUMMARY OF CONCEPTS
161
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