Overview
Understanding network traffic is fundamental to any marketing or business plan. This new report, “North American Network Traffic Forecast 2011,” by the Lightwave Report Series author, Clifford Holliday, provides detailed telecommunications forecasts for North America thorough 2016. It is our first traffic forecast report since Mr. Holliday’s 2006 report on this subject. That 2006 report became an instant industry classic, setting the standard for traffic forecasts for many years.
This latest report forecasts an astounding 100 Exabytes of traffic on the North American network by 2016.
Since the 2006 effort, many changes have occurred that dramatically impact the nature of network traffic. These changes, which are fully considered in this new report, include the following:
The dramatic rise in traffic from advanced access architecture (AAA) lines (FTTP and FTTN); • The startling increase in IPTV traffic;
- The increase in popularity of using mobile devices and especially using them for data-intensive applications — smartphones and tablets;
- The increase in overseas traffic, especially from the booming economies of the Far East;
- The relative decline (in the period of this forecast) of high-speed access lines and the traffic from them. This includes xDSL lines and cable modems.
“North American Network Traffic Forecast 2011” provides year-by-year forecasts for many classes of traffic, including the following:
- High-speed access traffic
- Dialup data traffic
- AAA lines data traffic
- Mobile data traffic
- International traffic (into and out of North America)
- VoIP traffic
- Other data networks traffic
- Private line traffic
- Voice traffic
- IPTV traffic
In addition to individual forecasts for each of the above, the report provides forecasts for total network traffic and Internet traffic, as well as the relevant growth rates.
Augmenting the very detailed discussion, there are 60 charts and figures to provide all the data on traffic necessary to achieve a full understanding of the forecasts.
Traffic quantities are of importance to anyone trying to develop market plans for telecommunications equipment and facilities. Traffic quantities and changes in growth rates are important because of their fundamental role in the following:
- Determining the need for equipment additions by the multitude of carriers contributing to the various segments of this network of networks
- Supporting facility additions (fiber and fiber routes)
- Requiring additions to cable company networks for high-speed data; • Defining the need for higher-speed accesses and all the equipment associated with providing that extra speed
- Supporting the ever-increasing need for safety of data, continuity of service, and privacy of data
;
- Suggesting the growing value of advertising and similar activities on the Internet
The author provides copious information in the Appendixes to allow telecommunications professionals — even those not schooled in traffic forecasting — to understand the terminology and concepts.
Table of Contents
The Lightwave Network Series of Reports
The Lightwave Network
The Lightwave Series of Reports
General Reports on the Network
General Market Reports
Specific Systems Reports
Executive Summary
Approach to Forecasting Traffic on the Internet
High-speed Access Lines (xDSL and Cable Modems)
Traffic Forecast for High-speed Users
Dialup Traffic
Advanced Access Architecture (AAA) Traffic
Mobile Traffic
Total Internet Traffic
International Traffic
VoIP Traffic
Other Data Networks
Private Line Networks
Voice Traffic
Total Network Traffic
Appendices
Introduction
Approach to Forecasting Traffic on the Internet
Total Network Traffic
Nomenclature
Major Traffic Sources
IPTV
Four Other (Non-IPTV) Sources of Traffic
AAA Access Lines
Mobile Devices
International Traffic
High-speed Access Lines
High-speed Access Lines
High-speed Access Lines Forecast
Household Penetration — New Forecast
Traffic Forecast for High-speed Users
High-speed Line Traffic
Rationale for Updating the Traffic Forecast High-speed Lines
New High-speed (xDSL and Cable Modem) per-line Traffic Forecast
Change to 75% of BH to Average
Components of BH Traffic Change Over Time
New Internet Traffic Forecast from High-speed Lines (xDSL and Cable Modem)
Dialup Traffic
AAA Traffic
Mobile Traffic
Total Internet Traffic Forecast
Lightwave Network
Network Location of Internet Traffic
Internet Traffic Forecast
Other Traffic Types on the Backbone Network
International Traffic
Network Location of International Traffic
Forecast for International Traffic
VoIP Traffic
Location of VoIP Traffic on the Network
Forecast for VoIP Traffic
Other Data Networks
Location of Other Network Traffic
Forecast for Other Network Traffic
Private Line Networks
Location of Private Line Traffic
Forecast for Private Line Traffic
Voice Traffic
Location of Voice Traffic
Forecast for Voice Traffic
IPTV
IPTV Global Architecture
Super Hub Office
Video Hub Office
Serving Offices
What are the Access Bandwidth Needs?
Drivers of Bandwidth Requirements
Bandwidth Requirements — 2012 Scenario
Traffic Forecasts
Total Network Traffic — No IPTV
Total Traffic Forecast — Including IPTV
Growth of the Internet
Appendix I: Traffic Statistics Relationships
Appendix II: Data Traffic Fundamentals
Internet Traffic Calculations
Bits and Bytes
Transfer Rate
Busy Hour Traffic
Protocol Efficiencies
Statistical Multiplexing
Peaking
Summary of Concepts
Table of Figures
Fig.01: Lightwave Network
Fig. 02: Premise for Forecasting Traffic on the Internet
Fig. 03: Internet Traffic Formula
Fig. 04: Total Traffic Compared to IPTV
Fig. 05: Data Traffic from Major Sources — No IPTV
Fig. 06: Comparison of Four Major Sources to Total Traffic — No IPTV
Fig. 07: New High-speed Access Forecast
Fig. 08: High-speed Lines Forecasts — All Types
Fig. 09: High-speed Access Household Penetration Rate — New Forecast
Fig. 10: BH High-speed per Line Usage — Old Forecast
Fig. 11: New Forecast for Per-line Traffic
Fig. 12: Components of New Forecast for per Line Usage in BH
Fig. 13: Components of the Total per-line BH Traffic Estimates
Fig. 14: Changes in per-line BH Usage Components
Fig. 15: File Sharing Component Decomposition
Fig. 16: File Sharing Components — 2006
Fig. 17: File Sharing Components in 2010
Fig. 18: File Sharing Components Change Over Time
Fig. 19: Internet Traffic Formula
Fig. 20: Forecast for Internet Traffic from High-speed Accesses
Fig. 21: Dialup Lines Forecast
Fig. 22: Dialup Traffic Forecast
Fig. 23: High-speed vs. Dialup Traffic
Fig. 24: Ratio of High-speed Traffic to AAA per Line Traffic
Fig. 25: AAA Line Forecast
Fig. 26: AAA Traffic
Fig. 27: Mobile Traffic
Fig. 28: Lightwave Network
Fig. 29: Network Location — Internet Traffic
Fig. 30: Internet Total Traffic Forecast
Fig. 31: Internet Traffic Change over Time
Fig. 32: Network Location of International Traffic
Fig. 33: International Traffic
Fig. 34: Location of VoIP Traffic
Fig. 35: VoIP Traffic
Fig. 36: Location of Other Network Traffic
Fig. 37: Other Data Networks
Fig. 38: Location of Private Line Traffic
Fig. 39: Private Line Networks
Fig. 40: Location of Voice Traffic
Fig. 41: Voice Traffic
Fig. 42: IPTV Global Architecture
Fig. 43: Drivers of Access Bandwidth Requirements
Fig. 44: Usage Scenario — 2012
Fig. 45: 2012 Bandwidth Requirements
Fig. 46: Forecast Access Bandwidth Requirements 2012
Fig. 47: Comparison of Internet Access Speed Offered
Fig. 48: Total Traffic Forecast — No IPTV
Fig. 49: Growth Rate — All Traffic — No IPTV
Fig. 50: Total Traffic Forecast — Including IPTV
Fig. 51: Backbone Growth Rates — Including IPTV
Fig. 52: All Traffic Components — Including IPTV
Fig. 53: Total Traffic Forecast and Growth Rate — Including IPTV
Fig. 54: Internet Components Forecast
Fig. 55: Internet Growth Rate — New Forecast
Fig. 56: Traffic/Speed Relationships
Fig. 57: Example of Various Traffic Sizes
Fig. 58: Multiples of ByteFig. 59: New Transfer Rate Forecast
Fig. 60: Summary of Concepts
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