Market Studies

The New Base Telecommunication
Architecture – 5G

Release: Aug 1, 2018

Overview | TOC | TOF

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Overview:

We have become used to the introduction of new generations of cellular service to mean service that is faster and that offers more capabilities. For example the move from 3G to 4G brought more speed and a mobile broadband (e.g., laptops) capability. However, the coming conversion to 5G will be completely different; it will also bring more speed and greater capabilities, but there will be so much more speed and the capabilities will be so much greater that it will introduce a completely new telecommunications architecture, and it will introduce the possibility of national high-speed Internet competition based on fixed wireless. The transition will be like going from a covered wagon to a Cadillac Escalade. They both get you from point to point, but there is no real comparison.

5G is going to be much more than an incremental improvement from 4G LTE; it is going to be an entirely new architecture that brings dramatic capabilities and features. Its combination of speed, low latency, high availability, and capacity of huge quantities of low cost connections will make services possible that were only talked about before.

This comprehensive report is going to discuss first the history of cellular development in the US and describe in some detail how we have moved from step to step along the path. It will then move into a discussion of 5G from many viewpoints, including objectives, frequency plans, architecture, relationship to IoT and Autonomous Vehicles, Carriers involved, phones, etc. This report will examine in detail, the possibility of much greater competition for high-speed Internet (and other fixed services) enabled thru 5G fixed wireless. Next it will investigate who the major players (and, as appropriate, their individual strategies for 5G) are in each aspect of 5G – carriers, network equipment vendors, phone vendors, and modem (chip set) vendors. The final main section of the report will deal with specific forecasts for 5G in the US and the impact of those forecasts on overall network requirements. Those forecasts include:

  • US Traffic – Total and Mobile
  • US Mobile Carriers Forecast Growth
  • 5G Phones Availability and Sources
  • IoT 5G Impact
  • Autonomous Vehicles 5G Impact
  • Over Build/ Cross Boundary Forecast
  • US 5G Penetration Forecast by Major Service
  • 5G Overall Timeline

Table of Contents

The New Base Telecommunication Architecture – 5G 1
Table of Contents 2
Table of Figures 7
The Lightwave Network Series of Reports 9
The Lightwave Network Series of Reports 9
   The Lightwave Network 9
   The Lightwave Series of Reports 10
     General Reports on the Network 11
     General Market Reports 11
     Specific Systems Reports 14
The New Base Telecommunication Architecture – 5G 17
Introduction 17
History of Cellular Phones in the US 18
   What are the Generations? 18
     1st Generation 19
      1G Standards 19
     2nd Generation 19
      2G Standards 20
     3rd Generation 20
      High-Speed Downlink Packet Access 21
      3GPP Long Term Evolution, precursor of LTE Advanced – 21
      Evolved HSPA 21
      3G Standards 21
     4th Generation 22
      LTE Advanced 23
      MIMO 23
      4G Standards 23
     5th Generation 23
      5G Standards 24
What is 5G? 26
   Higher Capacity - 26
   Higher Data Rate – 27
   Lower Latency – 29
   Massive Device Connectivity – 30
   Reduced Costs - 31
   Consistent Quality of Experience Provisioning 32
What is the Architecture of 5G? 32
5G Network Cooperation 33
   Various Cell Sizes for 5G Networks 34
   5G Network Architecture and Application Illustrations 35
   Facilities 37
     Small Cell Antennas 37
     MIMO 38
     MIMO and 5G 38
     Massive MIMO Spectrum Multiplying Advantage 40
     Fiber 41
     Verizon Fiber Plan for 5G 43
   Phones 44
     Apple 45
     Samsung 45
     Huawei 45
     Xiaomi 46
     OPPO 46
     Dominance of Samsung and Apple 46
   5G Phones 48
     Android Based Phones 48
     Apple 49
     Samsung 49
   Other Customer Access Devices 49
   5G Frequency Plans 49
Types of 5G 51
   Stationary 51
   Mobile 52
Who are the Primary US Carriers Involved in 5G? 52
   Verizon Wireless 53
   AT&T Mobility 54
   T-Mobile US 55
   Sprint Corporation 56
Carriers’ Announced Deployment Plans 57
   Verizon 57
   AT&T 58
   T-Mobile US 59
   Sprint 60
   T-Mobile and Sprint Merger 60
Two Major Applications for 5G: IoT and Autonomous Vehicles 61
   What is IoT? 61
Availability of a Network for Connection – a Major Problem with IoT 62
   Cellular IoT Connections Explained: NB-IoT vs. LTE-M vs. 5G and More 62
     How did Cellular IoT come to Be? 63
     Cat-1 64
     Cat-0 64
     Cat-M1/Cat-M/LTE-M 64
     NB-IoT/Cat-M2 64
     EC-GSM (formerly EC-EGPRS) 65
     5G as an IoT Connection Solution 65
   How Does 5G Enable IoT? 65
5G and Autonomous Vehicles 65
   Autonomous Vehicles Benefits 66
   Current Versions of Autonomy 66
   Issues with Autonomous Development 67
     Safety 67
     Business Case 68
   Availability of a Network for Interconnection 69
5G as a Major Competitive Tool 70
   Overbuilding 70
   Cross-Boundary Service 70
   Competitive Implications 72
5G Forecasts 75
   Mobile Traffic Forecast 75
   US Mobile Carriers Forecast 77
   Smartphone Growth Forecast for 5G - US 78
     5G Phone Introduction Plans 80
     5G US Penetration Forecast - Phones 81
   Major Applications of 5G – Penetration Forecast 82
     IoT – Internet of Things – 5G Penetration Forecast 82
     Autonomous Vehicles – 5G Penetration Forecast 83
   Network Impact of Autonomous Vehicles and IoT 84
   5G Penetration Forecast – US 85
   Over Build Forecast 88
   Forecast Summary 89
     Traffic: 89
     US Mobile Carriers: 89
     Phones: 89
     IoT: 89
     Autonomous Vehicles: 89
     Over Build/ Cross Boundary: 89
     5G Penetration: 90
     Timeline 90
   Radio Equipment Manufactures 91
     Huawei 91
     Ericsson 91
     Nokia 92
     ZTE 93
     Samsung 93
   Chip Set Vendors 93
     Intel 93
     Qualcomm 94
     Samsung 94
     Apple 94
     Huawei 95
Appendix I, List of US Cellular Carriers 96
   Contiguous US and Hawaii] 96
   Alaska 97
Appendix II, Traffic Statistics Relationships 99
   SONET/SDH Data Rates 102
Appendix III, Data Traffic Fundamentals 103
Appendix III, Data Traffic Fundamentals 103
   Internet Traffic Calculations 103
     Bits and Bytes 103
     Transfer Rate 103
     Busy Hour Traffic 104
     Protocol Efficiencies 105
     Peaking 106

Table of Figures

Figure 1, Lightwave Network 10
Figure 2, Wireless Penetration by Generation and Forecast 18
Figure 3, Network Generations Timeline 24
Figure 4, 5G Capacity Capabilities 26
Figure 5, Theoretical 5G Speed 27
Figure 6, Standards Evolution from 4G to 5G 28
Figure 7, Lower Latency Triangle - 5G 29
Figure 8, IoT Sensing Points Explosion 30
Figure 9, 5G Connection Capabilities 31
Figure 10, 5G Overall Layout 33
Figure 11, Cell/Technology Cooperation 34
Figure 12, Cell Types from Macro to Small 34
Figure 13, 5G Pictorial Architecture 35
Figure 14, 5G Infrastructure Applications 36
Figure 15, Different Types of Antennas to be Used with 5G 37
Figure 16, MIMO Multipath Propagation Increases Thru-Put 38
Figure 17, Depiction of Massive MIMO 39
Figure 18, Example of MIMO Antenna 40
Figure 19, 5G Layout Showing Fiber Connections 41
Figure 20, Graphical Illustration of Fiber's Place in a 5G Network 43
Figure 21, Smartphone Growth in US 44
Figure 22, World-Wide Smartphone Shipments 2007-2016, by OS 46
Figure 23, World Smartphone Suppliers - 2017 by Quarter 47
Figure 24, 5G Frequency Allocation – US 50