Overview
“Google and the RBOCs,” analyzes Google’s strategies as they relate to the telecommunications business and the interrelationship with current RBOC strategies. Our author reviews the current telecommunications marketplace and the forces driving it, and connects the RBOCs’ and Google’s public actions and announcements with their long-term strategies. An understanding of the implications of these strategies is fundamental to understanding where the telecommunications business is going in the US for equipment manufacturers, vendors, service suppliers and investors.
This report focuses on the perceived strategies of Google and the RBOCs. The RBOCs that we will focus on are Verizon and AT&T and to a lesser extent Qwest. The report will use these companies’ public announcements and private interviews and the author’s years of experience in this area to develop a view of their strategies, comments on the strategies and likely outcomes. The report will provide forecasts on all the topics of interest.
Report Features
This report contains much more than just a review of these companies’ strategies. It is full of forecasts and contains discussions of major topics in telecommunications that directly influence strategy selection such as:
- Capital expenditures (including a Capx forecast);
- Overbuilding and how this is being implemented differently by the different RBOCs
- The implementation of the Advanced Access Network and how this has become a strategy in its own right
- And perhaps most importantly how, and which of, the RBOCs are leaving wire line and becoming wireless companies.”
In addition to the detailed discussion of the competitive environment and the companies’ strategic response to that environment, this report addresses each of these areas, and provides forecasts as to our expectations for each. The report starts with a description of the planning environment and moves on to the underlying economic situation. Because of the overriding importance of the state of the US (and World) economy, it then provides a review of our forecasts for the nation’s economy as well as its impact on telephony. That portion of the report also provides our forecast for capital spending over the next five years. The report then continues with a review of the current telecom market structure. With that background, it moves to a detailed analysis of the activities of Google and the major RBOCs. From these activities and the market structure, the report develops and presents our view of each company’s strategy and comments on each. Forecasts are provided for each of the areas addressed.
Table of Contents
Table of Contents
Table of Figures
The Lightwave Network Series of Reports
The Lightwave Network
The Lightwave Series of Reports
General Reports on the Network
General Market Reports
Specific Systems Reports
Introduction
The Telco Business Transformation and Next Generation Network Series of Reports
This report
Planning Environment
US Telecommunications Economic Forecast
General Economic Background
Telecom Economic Background
Telecom Forecasts
Possible Positives for Telecom in 2010
Telecommunications Capital Forecast
Telecommunications Economic Forecasts Summary
Telecommunications Economic Forecasts - 2010
The Face of Network Competition – Market Structure Today
Google as a Major Player
Google Voice
How do you compete with “Free?”
Google Voice Growth
Google Voice – Downside
Forecast for Google Voice
Google Phone
RBOCs’ Multidimensional Competitive Struggle
Post-merger Competition
RBOC Purchase of IXCs
RBOCs vs. Cable Companies
RBOCs Are Becoming Wireless Access Companies
RBOC Loss of Main Lines
It’s a Wireless Access Industry!
The Wireless Access Landscape
Forecast for Wireline to Wireless
The Super Competitors
Strategies of the Major Players
Google Strategies
- Management and Financial Items
- Network Items
- Summary and Forecasat of Google Strategies
Verizon Strategies
- Management and Financial Items
- Network Items
- Summary and Forecast of Verizon Strategies
AT&T Strategies
- Management and Financial Items
- Network Items
- Summary and Forecast of AT&T Strategies
Qwest Strategies
- Management and Financial Items
- Network Items
- Summary and Forecast of Qwest Strategies
Comments on the Strategies of the Major Competitors
Summary of Forecasts
General Economic Forecasts
Telecommunications Economic Forecasts - 2009
Advanced Access Architectures
AT&T
Verizon
Qwest
Wireline to Wireless
Google Voice/Google Forecast
Overbuilding
Appendix I, Advanced Access Architecture Plans
AAA Deployment Forecast Summary
Forecast Size of Deployments
Forecast of Homes Passed
Penetration Rates
Appendix II, Overbuild
Overbuild – How?
Overbuild - Significance
A New Type of Competition
Summary of Overbuild Forecasts
Appendix III – Vision Planning Primer
What Is Vision Planning?
Development of a Vision
Vision Planning – Examples
IBM Example
Lincoln Example from the Civil War
The Vision Planning Pyramid
The Vision Planning Process
- Vision statement
- Develop a view of the future environment and test.
- Restatement
- Backwards deployment
(Implementation Plan)
Service Implementation Plan Example
Summary of Vision Planning
Table of Figures
Figure 1, Lightwave Network
Figure 2, Planning Environment
Figure 3, Telecommunication Capital Expenditures Actual and Forecast
Figure 4, Telecommunications Economic Forecasts
Figure 5, Forecast for Google Voice
Figure 6: Summary of Competitive Position, Pre-Mergers
Figure 7: Revised Competitive Structure Due to IXC Purchases
Figure 8: RBOCs Subsume IXCs and CLECs
Figure 9: RBOCs vs. Cable Companies
Figure 10, Telcos vs. Cable Companies – 2009
Figure 11, Verizon Wireline vs. Data Revenues
Figure 12, Verizon Loss of Main Lines vs. Data Revenue
Figure 13, Verizon Wireless vs. Wireline Total Revenue
Figure 14, Wireless Competition
Figure 15, Forecast for Wireline to Wireless Migration
Figure 16, The Super Competitors
Figure 17, Google as a Serious Threat
Figure 18, Google Strategies
Figure 19, Verizon Strategies
Figure 20, AT&T Strategies
Figure 21, Qwest Strategies
Figure 22: Forecast Homes Passed Cumulative — All Technologies
Figure 23: Forecast Homes Passed Annually — By Company — All Technologies
Figure 24: FTTX vs. High-speed Accesses vs. US Households
Figure 25, Verizon's NOOF Arrangement
Figure 26, Forecasted Overbuild Strategic Outcome
Figure 27, IBM’s Gerstner’s Corollaries
Figure 28, Vision Planning Pyramid
Figure 29, Vision Planning Approach
Figure 30, Traditional Planning Approach
Figure 31, Tom Peter's List of Good Vision Attributes
Figure 32, Davenports’ Visioning Process
Figure 33, Service Vision Statement Example
Figure 34, Vision Statement Examples
Figure 35, Example of Vision Statement and Implementation Plan
for Service
Figure 36, Summary of Points about Vision |
