Table of Contents
Table of CONTENTS
Table of Figures
The Lightwave Network Series of
Reports
The
Lightwave Network
The
Lightwave Series of Reports
General Reports on the Network
General Market Reports
Specific Systems Reports
Introduction
Reasons
for a New Report
Forecast
Costs and Financial Impacts
BellSouth Properties
This
Report
Background
Why AAA?
Comments
on Triennial Review Results
Original
Schedule
Differences
of the RBOCs
Market Competitive Analysis
AAA as the Light Sword of the RBOCs
RBOC Loss of Main Lines
Post-merger
Competition
RBOC
Purchase of IXCs
RBOCs
vs. Cable Companies
New High-Speed Access Forecast
Cable
Companies vs. Satellite Companies
The Need for Capacity
How
Much Bandwidth Is Enough?
Basis
for Estimating Needs
Meeting
the Bandwidth Needs
The
Current Options
FIOS – FTTP Bandwidth Capacity
Uverse
Alternatives
to Achieve the Required Bandwidth
Pair Bonding
Reduce the Distance
Hybrid FTTN – FTTC
Compression
NGPONs
- Advanced Options - 10-GPON and WDM-PON
10-GPON
WDM-PONs
Vendors of WDM-PON
Other WDM-PON Activities
Vendors of WDM – Listing and
Summary of Status
ADC
ADVA
Alcatel-Lucent
Ericsson
LG Electronics
Nortel
Novera
Pirelli
Tellabs
Cost Analysis of AAA
Costs
of AAAs
Uverse
FiOS
Qwest
Fiber Requirements for Various
Advanced Access Architectures
BellSouth's Fiber to the Curb
(FTTC)
AT&T's Fiber to the node (FTTN)
Verizon’s FTTP (Fiber to the
Premise)
Analysis of Architectural
Differences
AT&T’s New Plans for BellSouth
– a Hybrid FTTC/FTTN
Impact
of Loss of High-Speed Access Lines
RBOC Plans—RBOCs' AAA Plan — The
Lightwave Is Back!
Verizon
Plan
Verizon — Physical Description
Verizon Vendors
Verizon — Size of Rollout
Verizon — Services
Verizon
as an Overbuilder
AT&T
Plan
AT&T — Physical Description
AT&T Vendors
AT&T — Size of Rollout
AT&T — Uverse Services
Video
Internet
Voice
AT&T
U-verse Video Services
High-Speed
Access U-verse Services
BellSouth
Plan
BellSouth — Physical Description
Pre-Merger
Post-Merger
AT&T’s New Plans for BellSouth
Qwest
Plan
FTTN
FTTP
Comparing
the Plans of the RBOCs
Operations Savings Estimates
Growth
Comparisons
Summary of Announced Plans
Verizon
AT&T
Bell South
Qwest
Summary
information on the Announced Plans
Announced
Plans — Quantitative Analysis
Announced Plans — Size
Announced Plans — Costs
Announced Plans – Cost by Plant
Segments
Announced Plans – Capital and
Budget impacts
Announced Plans – Video Costs
Forecast for AAAs
Forecasts
for Deployment
AT&T
Verizon
BellSouth
Qwest
Deployment
Forecast Summary
AT&T
Verizon
BellSouth
Qwest
Forecast
Size of Deployments
Forecast of Homes Passed
Penetration Rates
Growth of AAA and Reduction in xDSL
Technology
Forecast
Forecast Technologies by Type
Forecast PONs — GPON vs. BPONs
Forecast
Costs
Unit Cost Tables
Forecast Plant Segment Cost
Forecast Capital Costs and Budget
Impacts
Forecast Video Costs
Vendors of the Light Sword
Requirements
for a Successful Vendor
Possible
Consortiums
Selected
Vendors
Vendors
of GPONS
Vendors
Listing
Summary of Vendors
Detailed
Listing of Vendors
Acterna (acquired by JDSU)
ADC
Adtran
Advanced Fibre Communications Inc.
(AFCI) (Now Tellabs)
Alcatel-Lucent
Alloptic Inc
Amino Technologies plc
AOC Technologies
Avanex Corporation
Broadlight
Calix
Cisco
Conexant
Corrigent
Entrisphere Inc. (Acquired by
Ericsson)
Ericsson
Fiberxon (Now Source Photonics
combined with Luminent)
Finisar Corporation
FlexLight Networks (Defunct)
Fujitsu
Genone3 Technologies Inc.
Hitachi Communication Technologies
Ltd.
Humax USA Inc.
Iamba Networks
JDS Uniphase
Kreatel Communications AB (Acquired
by Motorola)
LG Electronics
LightComm Technology
Marconi
Microsoft
Motorola
NeoPhotonics
Nortel
Novera Optics (owned by Nortel / LG
JV)
OFS
O-Net Communications Ltd
Oplink Communications, Inc.
Optiviva Inc.
Optical Solutions (Acquired by
Calix)
Osaki Electric Co. Ltd.
Paceon (Mitsubishi)
Passavé (Acquired by PMC-Sierra)
PMC-Sierra
Quantum Bridge Communications
(Acquired by Motorola)
Salira Optical Network Systems
Scientific-Atlanta (Cisco)
Siemens
Source Photonics (Combined with
Fiberxon and Luminent)
Tandberg Ltd. (Ericsson)
Tellabs
Terawave (Acquired by Occam
Networks)
Tut Systems (Acquired by Motorola)
Vinci Systems, Inc. (Acquired by
Tellabs)
Appendix I - Equipment and Fiber
Requirements
Equipment
PONs
– OLTs, Splitters, ONUs
Equipment Requirements – PONS,
OLTs, Splitters, ONUs – RBOC Plan
BPONS – RBOC Plan
GPONS – RBOC Plan
Total PONs – RBOC Plan
Equipment Requirements – PONS OLTs,
Splitters, ONUs – IGI Forecast
BPONs – IGI Forecast
GPONs – IGI Forecast
Total PONs – IGI Forecast
Equipment
for FTTN
FTTN Equipment Required – Plans
FTTN Equipment Required – Forecast
Fiber Needed
Fibers – Current RBOC Plans
Fibers – IGI Forecast RBOC Plans
Fibers Required – Summary and
Comparison of Plans vs. Forecast
Appendix II - Access Architecture
Various
Approaches for Fiber-based Access Architecture
Fiber
to the "X"
xDSL
Versions
Design
Details for Current Plans
Fiber to the Neighborhood (FTTN)
AT&T's Fiber to the node (FTTN)
BellSouth's Fiber to the Curb
(FTTC)
The
RFP — PONs Will Set Us Free
What Are PONs?
The PON Design
Status of PON
Advantage and Disadvantages of PON
Types of PONs
BPON
EPON
GPON
The PON in the First RFP
GPONs
Architectures
to Meet the Needs
Appendix III - Approaches to Video
Delivery
Broadcast
IPTV
IPTV Architecture
IPTV Global Architecture
Super
Hub Office
Video
Hub Office
Serving
Offices
IPTV Distribution and Access
Architecture
IPTV Channel Selection
Table of Figures
Figure 1: Lightwave Network
Figure 2: Five Reasons for 'Why AAA Now?'
Figure 3: FTTP Schedule
Figure 4: Summary of Competitive Position
Figure 5, Verizon Wireline vs. Data Revenues
Figure 6, Verizon Loss of Main Lines vs. Data Revenue
Figure 7: Revised Competitive Structure Due to IXC Purchases
Figure 8: RBOCs Subsume IXCs and CLECs
Figure 9: RBOCs vs. Cable Companies
Figure 10: New (2008) High Speed Forecast
Figure 11: Adoption Rates of PCs and High-Speed Access
Figure 12: Cable Companies vs. Satellite Companies
Figure 13: Bandwidth Needs — MPEG4 Compression Technology
Figure 14, Forecast Access Bandwidth Requirements 2010
Figure 15, PONs' Bandwidth Capacity
Figure 16, VDSL2 Bandwidth vs. Distance
Figure 17, Predominant Advanced Access Architectures
Figure 18, BellSouth FTTC
Figure 19, AT&T Uverse (FTTN)
Figure 20, Verizon FiOS (FTTP)
Figure 21, Amount of Fibers for the Architectures
Figure 22, Length of Fiber for the Architectures
Figure 23, Fiber Costs of the Three Architectures
Figure 24, Fiber Cost per customer - Each Architecture
Figure 25, AT&T - BellSouth Hybrid FTTC
Figure 26, Fiber Required Upgrading to Hybrid FTTC
Figure 27: Verizon High-speed Access Lines — By Quarter
Figure 28, AT&T H-S Additions
Figure 29, FiOS States - 2008
Figure 30: Verizon Services
Figure 31: AT & T U-verse Video Services
Figure 32: North Texas U-verse Service Offering
Figure 33: AT&T U-verse High-speed Access Services
Figure 34, Comparison of Internet Access Speed Offered
Figure 35, Growth of AAAs thru mid-2008
Figure 36: Announced Plans Summary Chart
Figure 37: Announced Plans — Annual HPs
Figure 38: Announced Plans — HPs Cumulative Passed vs. Served
Figure 39: Announced Plan — Comparison to High-speed Accesses
Figure 40: FTTP Served Customer Cost Assumptions
Figure 41: FTTP Cost per Unserved (but passed) House
Figure 42: Assumed Cost for FTTN and FTTC
Figure 43: FTTP Announced Plan — Costs by Segments
Figure 44: Announced Plan — Capital Costs and Budget Impact
Figure 45: Segment Costs Including Video
Figure 46: Forecast Homes Passed Cumulative — All Technologies
Figure 47: Forecast Homes Passed Annually — By Company — All Technologies
Figure 48: FTTX vs. High-speed Accesses vs. US Households
Figure 49, AAA Growth vs. Legacy XDSL
Figure 50: Technology Type Cumulative — Forecast
Figure 51: Forecast Technologies — Homes Passed — Annual
Figure 52: Forecast Homes Passed — PONs vs. Other Technologies
Figure 53: Total PONs Forecast — RBOCs — Cumulative
Figure 54: Moving from BPONs to GPONs
Figure 55: Forecast BPONs vs. GPONs by Year
Figure 56: Verizon PON Forecast
Figure 57: AT&T PON Forecast
Figure 58: Served Customer Cost Assumptions
Figure 59: Cost per Unserved (but Passed) House
Figure 60: Assumed Cost for FTTN and FTTC
Figure 61: Forecast FTTP Costs by Plant Segment
Figure 62: Forecast Plan Costs by Architecture
Figure 63: Forecast Cumulative Cost and Annual Budget Impact
Figure 64: Video Costs as Related to Total Plan
Figure 65: Requirements for Successful RFP Vendor to First FTTP RFP
Figure 66, Possible Consortiums
Figure 67, Originally Selected Vendors
Figure 68, Newly Selected Vendors
Figure 69: GPON Selected Vendors
Figure 70, Summary of Vendors
Figure 71, Currently Planned PONs
Figure 72, Forecast for PON Implementation
Figure 73, Forecast Access Networks By Architecture
Figure 74, Chart of Equipment Requirements – BPONS – Plan
Figure 75, Chart of Equipment Requirements – GPONs – Plan
Figure 76, Chart of Equipment Requirements – all PONs – Plan
Figure 77, Chart of Equipment Requirements – BPONs – Forecast
Figure 78, Chart of Equipment Requirements – GPONs – Forecast
Figure 79, Chart of Equipment Requirements – All PONs – Forecast
Figure 80, Equipment Requirements - FTTN Plans
Figure 81, Equipment Requirements - FTTN Forecast
Figure 82, Fibers Needed Current Plans
Figure 83, Forecast Fiber Used By Technology
Figure 84, Comparison of Plan vs. Forecast for Fiber Strand Requirements
Figure 85, Fiber to the 'X' Varieties
Figure 86, Chart of Various xDSL Technologies
Figure 87: Fiber to the Neighborhood
Figure 88: Fiber to the node
Figure 89: Fiber to the Curb
Figure 90: PON Basic Arrangement
Figure 91: RFP PON — Central Office Portion
Figure 92: RFP PON — Outside Plant Portion
Figure 93: RFP PON Service Assignments
Figure 94: BPON/GPON Comparison
Figure 95: Typical GPON
Figure 96: Bandwidth Needs vs. Capabilities
Figure 97: Broadcast TV on BPONs
Figure 98: Broadcast TV
Figure 99: IPTV General Architecture
Figure 100: IPTV Global Architecture
Figure 101: IPTV Access Architecture
Figure 102: FTTP Architecture for IPTV
Figure 103: IPTV Hub Office Architecture
Figure 104: IPTV Channel Selection
