Market Studies
Buying the Lightwave
Residential Networks: Volume III

Published: April 2001

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Comments from "Residential Networks"
Home Networks Will Become as Common as VCRs!
A new report, "Residential Networks, Volume III of Bringing the Lightwave Home," from IGI Consulting, Inc. (www.igigroup.com) describes a near term future in which nearly 40% of the nation’s new households come equipped with home networks. The author, Clifford Holliday, president of B & C Consulting Services, notes in the report, "The thirst for broadband access in the home has been driving the entire Internet backbone network growth phenomena. This was driven by the rapid growth of added Internet Accesses, and the growth in online time per access; however, in the last year the primary driver has changed to the conversion to high-speed access." This thirst for broadband has led to many of the conditions that facilitate the need for home networks – heavy data usage, multiple computers, and integration of data and entertainment sources.

The advantages of Home Networks are described in the report. The following table outlines these reasons for installing home networks:

REASON
COMMENTS
Provides advantages to multiple computer homes Estimates are that of PC households as high as 60% have two computers; more than 40% of residential new PC sales are going to homes with a PC .
Allow sharing of computer devices Saves second printer cost of $200-$500; avoids purchase of external disk $200-$300
Allows sharing of high-speed line Avoids cost of second high speed line $600 per year
Allows easy access to hard drives of attached computers A convenience factor

The report forecasts a substantial market for the penetration of home networks as the following table illustrates.

Cabled
Non-Cabled
Home Networks
Home Networks
Home Networks
Total
2001
250,000
286,541
536,541
2002
300,000
1,072,639
1,372,639
2003
300,000
1,196,706
1,496,706
2004
350,000
2,012,396
2,362,396
2005
390,000
2,067,156
2,457,156

Dr. Polishuk, President of IGI Consulting, comments, "This report uniquely characterizes home networks in terms of the infrastructure that makes them possible, as well as providing extensive market forecasts. Mr. Holliday, as author of this report (and the "Lightwave Series") brings a unique perspective to this task, having been instrumental in many of the major events in the broadband residential area. He was a leader of the Cerritos and Vistanet high-speed network demonstration projects, and the leader of the team that developed one of the earliest specifications for the Next Generation Digital Loop Carrier- the ERLU. As such, he is one of the major influences in the redesign of residential access that has taken place in the last decade. He was also one of the originators of the Residential Gateway (RG) concept. He was a primary author of the original Residential Gateway report that first described the RG."

Home Networks one of three volumes (Volume III) of a total report entitled "Bringing the Lightwave Home." The entire report provides exhaustive coverage of Broadband Residential Networks (wire line, fiber/coax, PONs, CATV and radio-based), Residential Gateways (whole house, Internet, and set-tops), and Home Networks (cable-based, phoneline, powerline, and radio based.) Each area is discussed as to market drivers, underlying technologies, applications, price and market forecasts, vendor profiles, and standards activity.

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Table of Contents

RESIDENTIAL NETWORKS

TABLE OF CONTENTS

TABLE OF FIGURES

SUMMARY OF CONCEPTS

INTRODUCTION

THE HOME OF THE FUTURE

MARKET DRIVERS

  • THIRST FOR BROADBAND ACCESS
  • THE INTERNET
    • xDSL Forecasts
    • Cable Modem Forecasts
    • Radio-Based High-Speed Line Forecasts
    • Fixed Wireless
    • Satellite-Based Service
    • Total High-Speed Residential Line Forecast
  • OTHER DRIVERS
    • Multiple Computer Homes
    • New Home Construction
    • Home Network Justification – A Cost-Based Driver

SEGMENTATION OF THE NETWORK

  • LONG-HAUL DWDM
  • METRO DWDM (METRO CORE)
  • ACCESS NETWORK EQUIPMENT (METRO ACCESS)
  • WAVELENGTH ROUTERS & OPTICAL SWITCHES
  • TERABIT ROUTERS & GIGABIT SWITCHES
  • AGGREGATION DEVICES
  • ENTERPRISE ACCESS SYSTEMS
  • VIDEO ACCESS EQUIPMENT
  • RESIDENTIAL ACCESS SYSTEMS

HOME NETWORKS – THE GLUE THAT TIES IT ALL TOGETHER

INTRODUCTION

HOME NETWORK RATIONALE

TYPES OF HOME NETWORKS

  • CABLE-BASED
    • Ways of Using Cable Networks
    • The Thin Coax Network
    • The Category 5 Cable Network
    • Migrating from a Legacy Network to Category 5
    • Connecting an External Network
  • "PIGGYBACK" NETWORKS
    • Telephony Wiring
    • Power Wiring
    • X 10
    • CEbus
    • LonWorks
    • High-Speed Powerline Networks
    • Radio-Based
  • Comparisons of Home Network Types

REVIEW OF HOME NETWORK VENDORS

  • SUMMARY OF CABLE-BASED SYSTEMS
  • SUMMARY OF PHONELINE SYSTEMS
  • SUMMARY OF POWERLINE SYSTEMS
  • SUMMARY OF RF SYSTEMS
  • VENDOR’S PROFILES
    • 2Wire
    • Actiontec Electronics
    • Adaptive Networks
    • Ademco
    • Atheros Communications
    • Avaya
    • Broadcom Corp.
    • Buffalo Technologies
    • CEBus Industry Council
    • Centillium Communications Inc.
    • ClearWorks
    • Diamond Multimedia
    • D-Link Systems
    • Domosys
    • Echelon Corp.
    • HighSpeed Surfing
    • Home Phoneline Networking Association
    • HomePlug Powerline Alliance
    • HomeRF Working Group
    • Inari
    • Intellon Corp.
    • Linksys
    • LonMark Interoperability Association
    • Lucent
    • MediaFlow
    • Multiplex Technologies Inc.
    • NDC Communications
    • OnQ Technologies Inc.
    • Proxim
    • Radiata
    • Smarthome.com
    • X-10 USA Inc.

PRICE FORECASTS

  • HOME NETWORKS
    • Cable-Based
    • Phoneline, Powerline, RF

MARKET FORECASTS

  • HOME NETWORKS
    • Cable-Based
    • Phoneline
    • Powerline
    • RF or Wireless
  • Total Non-Cable Home Networks
    • Total Home Network Market

SUCCESS STRATEGIES

  • CARRIERS
  • VENDORS

STANDARDS ACTIVITIES

  • ADSL Forum
  • Cable Labs
  • CEBus Industry Council
  • Digital Audio Visual Council
  • Electronic Industries Alliance
  • Home Phoneline Networking Association
  • HomePlug Powerline Alliance
  • HomeRF Working Group
  • IEEE-1394
  • IEEE- 802.3
  • LonMark Interoperability Association
  • OSGi Open Services Gateway Initiative
  • T1
  • Universal ADSL Working Group
  • Video Electronics Standards Association

APPENDIX I – MATRIX OF PROVIDERS

APPENDIX II – LISTING OF ACRONYMS


Table of Figures

  • Figure 1, Report Major Volumes
  • Figure 2, SBC xDSL Gain in 2000
  • Figure 3, xDSL In-Service End of 2000, Selected Companies
  • Figure 4, xDSL Forecast – US
  • Figure 5, Cable Modem Forecast
  • Figure 6, Fixed Wireless Forecast – US Subscribers
  • Figure 7, Satellite High-Speed Access - US Subscribers
  • Figure 8, xDSL and Cable Modem High-Speed Lines - US Forecast
  • Figure 9, Comparison of xDSL and Cable Modem Forecasts
  • Figure 10, Total High-Speed Access Lines – By Type
  • Figure 11, Total High-Speed Access Lines
  • Figure 12, High-Speed Accesses vs. Household Growth
  • Figure 13, Households with Computers and Multiple PCs - US Forecast
  • Figure 14, New Home Construction - US
  • Figure 15, Cost Savings Available from Home Network Plus RG
  • Figure 16, "Riding the Lightwave" Rationale
  • Figure 17, The Residential World
  • Figure 18, Rationale for Home Networks
  • Figure 19, IEEE Cabling Standards
  • Figure 20, Thin Coax Network
  • Figure 21, Category 5 Cable Network
  • Figure 22, Migration from Thin Coax to Category 5 Network
  • Figure 23, Interconnection of External Network
  • Figure 24, Cable Based Home Network
  • Figure 25, Components of a Structured Wiring System
  • Figure 26, Power Line Transmission Problems
  • Figure 27, Vendor Summary of RF Systems
  • Figure 28, Cable-Based Home Networks - Price Forecast
  • Figure 29, Price Forecast - Non-Cable Home Networks
  • Figure 30, Acceptance Percentages - New Homes Wired
  • Figure 31, Market Forecast – Cable-Based Home Networks
  • Figure 32, Acceptance Percentage - Non-Cable-Based Home Networks
  • Figure 33, Non-Cabled Home Networks – All Types
  • Figure 34, Market Percentage - Phoneline Networks
  • Figure 35, Market Percentage - Powerline Networks
  • Figure 36, RF Market Penetration
  • Figure 37, Market Forecast – Non-Cable Home Network Segments
  • Figure 38, Summary of Non-Cable Home Network Market Forecasts
  • Figure 39, Market Forecast - Total Home Network Market
  • Figure 40, Unit Forecast for Home Networks
  • Figure 41, Cumulative Home Network Market

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