Overview:
We were in a recession, with the telecommunications area the hardest hit. Then the attacks of 9-11 drove us even more to inactivity. We have since endured the bankruptcy of one of the world’s major carriers, with associated criminal charges. Other major carriers and vendors are on the precipice of bankruptcy. It has been a very difficult time for the nation, but it has been especially difficult for the telecommunications industry!
Through it all, one silver lining has continued; the overwhelming customer demand for broadband services. There was a partial slowing of this demand in the middle of 2001, but it is back to full force as we enter the last half of 2002. It is this demand of the end user that is the source of the "Recovery form the Edge," described quantitatively in this report. This same demand is also evidencing itself in the business community as companies of all sizes seek to find telecommunications answers to productivity and continuity of business issues.
This new report, "Recovery from the Edge," – Lightwave Segment Forecasts," provides market forecasts (through 2006) of the nine segments of the Lightwave Network. It includes details of the various sectors with a discussion of the current drivers in each area, and the companies that are likely to lead the sector.
All nine Lightwave Network sectors are individually forecast, as well as the total. As an example, the following is the new forecast for DWDM (exclusive of metro applications.) All nine Network segments are similarly forecasts, contrasting the latest to earlier forecasts.
As noted, these forecasts envision a "recovery from the edge." This is a way of expressing the position that the telecom market recovery will be driven from the end users (residences and businesses) – thus from the edge of the network. This driver is now most evident in the growth of high-speed Internet accesses (largely cable modems and xDSL lines.) The traffic load presented by this growth is being reflected "up" the network and will eventually result in a "recovery from the edge." This report is based on the latest information and on the analysis of the recovery prospects as discussed in the mid-2002 report "Return of the Telecom Market – When?"
In addition to the nine segments’ forecasts, the report provides forecasts for high-speed accesses and Internet traffic for the next six years.
This is a companion report (although it is a completely standalone document) to "Return of the Telecom Market – When?" and the new report "Winners and Losers – The Coming Landscape of the Lightwave." The report is a "Lightwave Series" report, and is consistent with the reports in that group.
Table of Contents:
Table of Contents
Table of Figures
The Lightwave Network Series of Reports
Executive Summary
Introduction
Recovery Drivers
Importance of H-S Accesses
H-S Accesses Have Disproportional Impact on Network Growth
“Up Network” Traffic Implications of High-Speed Accesses
Forecasts for High-Speed Accesses
Return to Pre-Recession Growth Levels
Nomenclature
Long-Haul Rings
Previous Forecast – DWDM
2002 Forecasts – DWDM
Metro Networks
Previous Forecast – M-DWDM
2002 Forecast – M-DWDM
Metro Access Networks
Previous Forecast – Metro Access Networks
2002 Forecast – Metro Access Networks
Wavelength Routers & Optical Switches
Previous Forecast – OXCs
2002 Forecast – OXCs
Terabit Routers & Gigabit Switchers
Previous Forecast – Terabit Routers
2002 Forecast – Terabit Routers
Aggregation Devices
Previous Forecast – Aggregation Devices
2002 Forecast – Aggregation Devices
Enterprise Access Systems
Previous Forecast – Enterprise Access Systems
2002 Forecast – Enterprise Access Systems
Residential Access Systems
Previous Forecast – Residential Access Systems
2002 Forecast – Residential Access Systems
Video Access Equipment
Previous Forecast – Video Access Equipment
2002 Forecast – Video Access Equipment
Segments’ Forecasts – Summary
New Forecast Summary – 2002 Forecasts
Previous Forecasts – Summary
Comparison of the 2002 and Previous Forecasts
Appendix I – The Lightwave Network
Lightwave Network - Operational Description
Transport Network
Interconnect Network
Access Network
Lightwave Network - Major Unit Description
Long-Haul Rings
Metro Networks
Metro Access Networks
Wavelength Routers & Optical Switches
Terabit Routers & Gigabit Switchers
Aggregation Devices
Enterprise Access Systems
Residential Access Systems
Video Access Equipment
Appendix II – Vendor Matrix
Table of Figures:
Figure 1, Summary of Forecasts – 2002 (Millions)
Figure 2, Network Traffic Projections – Based on Coffman
Figure 3, Current Internet Traffic Projection
Figure 4, “Up-Network” Impact of Residential Demand
Figure 5, Forecasts of H-S Access Lines – Cur. Fore. Comp. to 2000
Figure 6, Forecasts of xDSL – Comparison Current to Year 2000
Figure 7, H-S Access Growth 2Q 2001 to 2Q 2002
Figure 8, H-S Growth vs. Forecast
Figure 9, Previous DWDM Forecast
Figure 10, DWDM 2002 Forecast
Figure 11, Previous M-DWDM Forecast
Figure 12, M-DWDM 2002 Forecast
Figure 13, Previous Forecast - Metro Access Networks
Figure 14, 2002 Forecast - Metro Access Networks
Figure 15, Previous Forecast for OXCs
Figure 16, 2002 Forecast for OXCs
Figure 17, Previous Forecast for Terabit Routers
Figure 18, 2002 Terabit Router Forecast
Figure 19, Previous Forecast - Aggregators
Figure 20, 2002 Forecast – Aggregators
Figure 21, Previous Forecast - Enterprise Access
Figure 22, 2002 Forecast - Enterprise Access Systems
Figure 23, Previous Forecast - Residential Access Systems
Figure 24, 2002 Forecast - Residential Access Systems
Figure 25, Previous - Video Access Equipment
Figure 26, 2002 Forecast - Video Access Equipment
Figure 27, 2002 Forecasts Summary (Millions)
Figure 28, Previous Forecasts Summary (Millions)
Figure 29, Comparison of 2002 to Previous Forecasts
Figure 30, The Lightwave Network
Figure 31, The Transport Network
Figure 32, Interconnect Network
Figure 33, Access Network
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