Overview:
Many are asking the question now, "We can see a recovery of the telecommunications market place, but who or what is going to be left?"
The current turmoil in the telecommunications marketplace is well documented. It has caused some of the biggest displacements in history of the industry in terms of personnel and finances. It seems obvious that it is also going to cause a displacement in the industry in terms of the basic structure, and the components of that structure.
This new report, "The Winners and Losers – the Coming Landscape of the Lightwave," provides an analysis basis to aid in conceptualizing what that future telecommunications industry in the United States might look like. It also ‘names names’ in that it discusses specific companies that are likely to survive and those that are not. The report covers both equipment vendors and telecommunications carriers, and uses many sub-categories of each to improve the usefulness of the forecasts.
The author provides his forecast of the future industry structure along with extensive supporting rationale. The goal of the report is to provide a logically consistent set of outcomes, with the supporting reasoning, along with possible alternatives. It is intended that these will supply the reader with the tools to be able to construct his personal view of that future, developed by applying his own special knowledge and biases.
To help support the author’s view as well as to provide a source of alternative opinions, the report includes the results of a small survey of telecommunications industry participants (both carriers and vendors). These individuals have provided their answers to the author’s basic question of what will the future be like?
The technique of the report is to identify the current structure of the market by types of companies (looking at both suppliers of equipment and at service providers) with major company examples in each category. The Lightwave Network physical structure is used to associate the vendors and carriers to specific areas of the network. The report then associates current market changes with longer-term changes in the basic structure. Extensive diagrams are used to help the reader visualize the forecast future. The following is an example of one of these figures from the report. It is the current view of the carrier landscape.
The information in this report will be of use to literally every company involved in the telecommunications market. It will help to begin the job of getting ready for a recovery. Its information about the likely future landscape will be useful to everyone trying to re-structure to be successful in that future.
The projected future structure is consistent with the forecasts for market recovery in "The Return of the Telco Market- When?" and with the segment forecasts in "Recovery from the Edge," which are companion reports. These are companion reports, but each is a complete, standalone document. As with these two reports, this is a Lightwave Series report (see www.igigroup.com ) and is consistent with that group of reports.
Table of Contents:
TABLE OF CONTENTS
TABLE OF FIGURES
THE LIGHTWAVE NETWORK SERIES OF REPORTS
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Vendors
Service Providers
INTRODUCTION
LIGHTWAVE LANDSCAPE - THE CURRENT VIEW
Equipment and Facility Vendors
Broad-range Vendors
Area Vendors
Single Product Vendor
Start-up Vendors
Service Providers
IXCs
Fiber Companies
ILECs
CLECs
Cable Companies
DLECs
Metro Network Vendors
WINNERS AND LOSERS - FORECASTS OF THE NEW LANDSCAPE
The Vendors - Most Likely Landscape
The Winners
The Area Vendors
The Losers
The Broad-range Vendors
Single Product Vendors
The Start-ups
The Service Providers - Most Likely Landscape
The Winners
ILECs
The Cable Companies
Metro Network Companies
The Losers
IXCs
Fiber Companies
CLECs
DLECs
Service Providers - Landscape Evolution
Service Providers - Current View
Service Providers - 2003-2004 View
Service Providers - 2005-2006 View
ALTERNATE FUTURES
Possibilities
Newly Rejuvenated Companies
The ILECs Could Go Down
INDUSTRY SURVEY
General Survey Responses
Landscape Seminars
Individual Comments
Service Providers
Vendors
General
SUMMARY OF FUTURE LANDSCAPE
Vendors
Service Providers
APPENDIX I - THE LIGHTWAVE NETWORK
Lightwave Network - Operational Description
Transport Network
Interconnect Network
Access Network
Lightwave Network - Major Unit Description
Long-Haul Rings
Metro Networks
Metro Access Networks
Wavelength Routers & Optical Switches
Terabit Routers & Gigabit Switchers
Aggregation Devices
Enterprise Access Systems
Residential Access Systems
Video Access Equipment
APPENDIX II - VENDOR MATRIX
Table of Figures:
Figure 1, Broad-range Vendors
Figure 2, Area Vendors
Figure 3, Single Product Vendors
Figure 4, Start-up Vendors
Figure 5, IXCs
Figure 6, Fiber Companies
Figure 7, ILECs
Figure 8, CLECs
Figure 9, Cable Companies
Figure 10, DLECs
Figure 11, Metro Cable Companies
Figure 12, The Winners - Vendors
Figure 13, The Losers - Vendors
Figure 14, The Winners - Services Providers
Figure 15, The Losers - Service Providers
Figure 16, Service Providers - Current View
Figure 17, Service Providers - 2003-2004 View
Figure 18, Service Providers - 2005-2006 View
Figure 19, The Lightwave Network
Figure 20, The Transport Network
Figure 21, Interconnect Network
Figure 22, Access Network
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