Table of Contents

• A. Evolution of E-Commerce Business Models
• B. The New Commercial World Order
• C. Internet Stock Valuations vs. Eyeball Estimates
• D. Gateways to E-Commerce: Portals and Hubs
• E. Paths to Profit: Keiretsu, E-Chains, and Expanded Access
• F. Why Technology Matters
• G. Search, Intelligent Agent, and Knowledge Management
  Technologies
• H. Multimedia and Broadband Access Technologies
• I. New Technology-Driven E-Commerce Business Models
• J. Established (Old) E-Commerce Business Models
• K. Requirements For Successful Information Strategies

  1. Relevance of Information

  2. Ubiquity of Information

  3. Freedom of Information

  4. Personalization of Information

  5. Commercialization of Information

• L. Major Conclusions of This Study

II. BUSINESS MODELS & WEB ECONOMICS

• A. The Full Range of Internet Business Models
• B. Specific Internet Business Models

  1. Basic Business Model: Portals and Traffic-Builders

  2. Entertainment Business Model: Exploiting
  Attention Span

  3. High-Margin Business Model: Most Valuable Customer Skimming

  4. Service Business Model: Added Value Applications

  5. Community Business Model

  6. Personal Portal: BYO (Bring Your Own) Portal

  7. Vertical Business Model: Vertical Hubs and
  Communities

  8. Brokering Business Model: Facilitating Transactions

  9. Toll-Taking Business Model: Earn a Little
  Every Time

  10. Keiretsu Business Model: Oligarchic Internet Ecosystems

  11. Biz-to-Biz Business Model: Focus on Corporate Commerce

  12. Price Agent (Price Optimization) Business Model

  13. Low-Margin Business Model: Making it Up in Volume

  14. Zero-Margin Business Model: The Lowest Common Denominator

  15. SubZero Margin Business Model

  16. Free/Sub-Free Business Model: Indentured
  Commerce

  17. Auction-Based Business Model: Balancing Supply and Demand

  a. Standard Auctions

  b. Reverse Auctions

  c. Multisite Auctions

  18. Super-Agent Business Model

  19. Virtual Worlds Business Model: VR, Avatars, and 3D Immersion

  20. Nirvana: The Path to Profitable, Web-Based E-Commerce

• C. Business Model Conclusions
• D. Web Economics & The New Economy

  1. The Internet Profits Puzzle Explained

  2. Atomization Economics

  3. Velocity of Money

  4. Tamed Inflation and Deflationary Expectations

  5. Time Contraction

  6. A Positive-Sum Rather Than Zero-Sum Game

  7. Tracking and Forecasting Profits: Company Financial Template

  8. Internet Stock Valuations: Additional Observations

  9. Urge to Merge: The Territorial Imperative

  10. Deflation Dangers

• E. A Primer On The New Internet Economy

III. CRITICAL TECHNOLOGIES

• A. Why Big E-Commerce Sites Need Better Technology to Prosper
• B. Why Small E-Commerce Sites Need Better Technology to Survive
• C. E-Commerce Technology Components

  1. Information Portal Technology: The Current Big Thing

  2. End-to-End Technologies: The Eventual Really
  Big Thing

  a. Middleware Vendors

  3. Database Integration Technology for Enterprise and Web

  4. Relevance Technology: Hubs, Search Engines, Intelligent Agents

  a. Relevant Data

  b. Relevant Ads

  5. Search Engines and Meta-Search Techniques

  6. Search Technology Relevance Solutions

  a. Relevance by User History

  b. Relevance by Popularity

  c. Relevance by Importance

  d. Relevance by Enhanced Linguistics

  e. Relevance by Commercial Value

  f. Relevance via Guided Search

  g. Relevance by Helpful Suggestions

  7. The Best Search Solution: The Search Application Suite

  8. Combinations of Speed, Content, and Connectivity Technology

  9. Mobile and Wireless E-Commerce Technology

• D. Transaction Technology: Digital Cash, Smart Cards, Universal Accounts

  1. Digital Cash and Micro-payments

  2. Smart Cards

  3. Universal Asset and Online Trading Accounts

• E. Free Information: New Foundation of the Information Economy?
• F. Personalization Technologies
• G. Advertising Technologies: Ad-Targeting and Ad-Insertion
• H. Multimedia Technologies: Voice-over-IP, Video, and 3D
• I. Security Technologies: Trust and Privacy
• J. XML Technologies: the New Lingua Franca of E-Commerce
• K. Summary: Technology Winners and Losers

  1. Technology Category Winners

  2. Technology Category Losers

  3. Some Companies That Will Win

  4. Some Companies with Inadequate Strategies

  5. Internet Knowledge Management Conclusions

IV. IMPLEMENTATION STRATEGIES

A. Technology Strategies

1. Competitive Web Site Technologies

2. Competitive Value-Added Technologies

3. Competitive Advertising Revenue Technologies

B. Marketing Strategies

1. Global Distribution

2. Winning Consumer Loyalty Through Pricing

3. Winning Eyeballs

4. Leveraging E-Services

5. Leveraging Personalization

6. Market Research Software

7. Market Management Software

C. Financial Strategies

1. How to Create and Maintain Profits

2. How to Generate Capital with a Great Idea

3. How to Obtain Capital

4. Mergers & Acquisitions

5. Financial Transition: From Traditional Markets to E-Commerce

V. MARKET OPPORTUNITIES

• A. Market Opportunities for Software Vendors
• B. Market Opportunities for Hardware Manufacturers
• C. Opportunities for Business Transformation
• D. Opportunities for Retail Kiosks
• E. Opportunities for Security Vendors
• F. Opportunities for Telecomm Services
• G. Opportunities for Publishing/Printing
• H. Opportunities for Services
• I. Opportunities for Consultants
• J. Opportunities for Cottage Industries
• K. Opportunities for Big Business
• L. Opportunities for Keiretsu Alliances
• M. Opportunities for The Virtual Corporation

VI. THE BEST/WORST MARKET OPPORTUNITIES

• A. Best E-Markets: E-Services and E-Commerce Software
• B. Best E-Markets: Site Development Services
• C. Best E-Markets: Convergence Commerce Hardware and Software
• D. Best E-Markets: Business-to-Business E-Chain Integration
• E. Best E-Markets: International E-Commerce Solutions
• F. Best E-Markets: Mobile Internet Phones
• G. Best E-Markets: Online Financial Trading Markets
• H. Best E-Markets: Consumer and Business Intelligent Agent Technologies
• I. Good E-Markets: Electronic Catalogs and Virtual Malls
• J. Good E-Markets: Community Affinity Sites
• K. Maturing Consumer E-Markets: Books and Music Retailing
• L. Elusive E-Markets: Internet Telephony
• M. Elusive E-Markets: Satellite Internet Phones
• N. Questionable Consumer E-Markets: Software Retailing
• O. Questionable Consumer E-Markets: Games Retailing and Distribution
• P. Questionable Consumer/Business E-Markets: Computers & Accessories
• Q. Questionable E-Markets: Online Auction and Reverse Auction Markets

VII. VENDOR PROFILES

A. Portals & Horizontal Gateways

1. Yahoo!

2. @Home/Excite/AT&T/TCI

3. AOL/Netscape

4. Microsoft/MSN-Marketplace/HotMail

5. AltaVista

6. Lycos

B. Vertical Hubs

7. Intuit

8. E*Trade

9. Fidelity Investments

10. ZiaSun

11. Network Associates / McAfee Online

12. Pointcast

13. RealNetworks

14. Health Hero Network

C. Online Retailers

15. Amazon

16. Barnes and Noble

17. eBay

18. OnSale

19. Buy.com

20. Priceline

21. Dell Computer

22. Compaq Computer

D. Internet Technology Vendors

23. Inktomi

24. Verity

25. DoubleClick

26. IntelliSeek

E. Internet Technology Conglomerates

27. USWeb/CKS

28. Softbank Holdings

29. CMG, Inc.

F. Related Products & Services

30. Oracle

31. Sun Microsystems

32. Cisco Systems

33. Intel Corp.

34. IBM/Lotus

G. Internet Telecommunications Vendors

35. Motorola

36. Qwest

37. Triton Network Systems

38. 3COM Corp.

39. Teledesic LLC

40. U.S. Wireless Data

41. Nokia Mobile Phones

42. Symbian Ltd.

43. Gooitech

44. Datalink.net

45. Unwired Planet

VIII. THE ULTIMATE WINNERS

• A. Wireless Digital Content Broadcasters
• B. Vertical Hubs
• C. Personal Portal Providers
• D. Major Internet Alliances and Conglomerates: Web Keiretsu

IX. APPENDIX: About The Author

Tables and Figures

• Table I-1, Evolution of E-Commerce Business Models by 6-Month Generations
• Table I-2, Leading Public Internet Company Valuations and Estimated Users
• Figure I-1, Emerging Internet Keiretsu
• Figure I-2, Emerging Internet Keiretsu (Continued)
• Table I-3, Selected Value Added Internet Hub Sites
• Figure I-3, Internet E-Commerce Forecast, Worldwide, 1998 - 2003 (Most Likely Case)
• Figure I-4, Internet Consumer E-Commerce Forecast, Worldwide by Region, 1998 - 2003 (Most Likely Case)
• Figure I-5, Global Share of E-Commerce Revenue, by Region (Most Likely Case)
• Figure I-6, Internet Versus Radio, TV, and PC: Years to Attain 50 Million Users 20
• Figure I-7, Internet E-Commerce Forecast, Worldwide, 1998 - 2003 (Best Case)
• Figure I-8, Global Consumer E-Commerce Forecast, Worldwide, 1998 - 2003 (Best Case)
• Figure I-9, Global Share of E-Commerce Revenue, by Region (Best Case)
• Figure I-10, Internet User Forecast, Worldwide, 1998 - 2003
• Figure I-11, E-Commerce (Keiretsu-Like) Economics
• Figure I-12, Key Enabling E-Commerce Technologies
• Table II-1, Profit Model Comparison: New E-Tailer Versus Traditional Retailer
• Table II-2, Twenty E-Commerce Business Models
• Table II-3, Per Employee Performance of E-Commerce Businesses (assembled from public company disclosures, January, 1999)
• Table II-4, Estimated Market Share For U.S. E-Brokers
• Table II-5, Examples of Sites Employing Price Agent Technology
• Table II-6, Elements of the Ideal E-Commerce Business Model
• Table II-7, Importance of Various Capitalization Factors
• Table II-8, Price-To-Sales Ratio For Select Internet Companies
• Table II-9, Financial Model For Typical Internet Business
• Table II-10, Financial Model Based On Averages of 20 Leading Internet Companies
• Table II-11, Financial Model Based On Composite of 20 Leading Internet Companies
• Table III-1, Key E-Commerce Technology Components
• Table III-2, Developers of Enterprise Portals
• Table III-3, E-Commerce Servers: Core Components of End-to-End E-Chain
• Table III-4, Middleware Vendors Addressing End-to-End Integration
• Table III-5, Ad Agencies Specializing in Internet Marketing
• Table III-6, Traffic Shares of Major Horizontal Portals
• Table III-7, Companies Specializing in Internet Ad Management
• Table III-8, Streaming Media Companies
• Table IV-1, Top Eight Technology Goals, In Order of Importance
• Table IV-2, Marketing Campaign Management Software
• Table IV-3, Critical Factors For Lasting Profitability
• Table V-1, E-Commerce Software Opportunities (Current and Projected Growth)
• Table V-2, E-Commerce Hardware Opportunities (Ranked)
• Table V-3, Traditional Retail Versus E-Tail Sales Projections For Select Markets
• Figure VI-1, Comparative Net Income of Large Software Vendors
• Figure VI-2, Countries With High Wireless Market Penetration
• Figure VI-3, Forecast of U.S. Online Trading Accounts, 1998 - 2001 (millions of users)
• Table VI-1, E-Commerce Software Opportunities (Current and Projected Growth)
• Table VI-2, Vendors Providing Site Software With Community Features/Functions
• Table VI-3, Leading Voice Over IP Vendors
• Table VII-1, Financial Analysis of Yahoo!, Inc.
• Table VII-2, Financial Analysis of Broadcast.com
• Figure VII-1, AT&T/TCI/@Home Keiretsu
• Table VII-3, Financial Analysis of @Home
• Table VII-4, Financial Analysis of America Online
• Figure VII-2, AOL Keiretsu
• Table VII-5, Financial Analysis of Netscape
• Figure VII-3, Microsoft Keiretsu
• Table VII-6, Financial Analysis of Microsoft
• Table VII-7, Financial Analysis of Lycos
• Table VII-8, Financial Analysis of Intuit
• Table VII-9, Financial Analysis of E*Trade
• Table VII-10, Leading Online Brokers and Estimated Number of Accounts
• Table VII-11, Financial Analysis of ZiaSun
• Table VII-12, Financial Analysis of RealNetworks
• Table VII-13, Comparison of Online Patient Care Service Providers
• Table VII-14, Financial Analysis of Amazon.com
• Figure VII-4, Amazon Keiretsu
• Table VII-15, Financial Analysis of eBay
• Table VII-16, Financial Analysis of OnSale
• Table VII-17, Financial Analysis of Inktomi
• Table VII-18, Financial Analysis of Verity
• Table VII-19, Financial Analysis of DoubleClick
• Table VII-20, Financial Analysis of USWeb
• Table VII-21, Financial Analysis of CMGI
• Figure VII-5, CMGI Keiretsu
• Table VII-22, Financial Analysis of Oracle
• Table VII-23, Intel's Internet Company Investments