Business Transformation Planning

Market Studies

Telecom Business Transformation Series

1394 Market and Technology Study

Business Transformation Planning

Release: August 2009

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This report boldly tells exactly how to do transformation planning. It is written by an author who has been involved in (often as a leader, but also as a follower) many transformation projects in several different venues. He has also been deeply involved in all phases of telephony planning for over 40 years. This report is devoted to exploring the planning process devoted to telecommunications business transformation. The techniques and steps described herein will guide the firm in the process, but the actual work must be done on an individual basis. In general, business transformation planning has many outputs, and influences many (maybe all) processes in a business, but in telecommunications, business transformation planning must also involve, as one of its outputs, the development of a next-generation network, since the nature of the future network must reflect the new business plan.

Unlike in the past, the development of these future networks is based on customers’ needs and business vision, as opposed to technological possibilities and cost efficiencies. These two ingredients (customers’ needs and business vision), along with an understanding of competitors’ positions, are the basis of planning for future networks today.

Report Features

We will review the techniques for transformation planning and some of the drivers in today’s market for that planning activity. This development of techniques will include:

  • The description of the planning environment – A framework that outlines the steps in the planning process;
  • The general forecast for the U.S. economy and particularly the U.S. telcos;
  • The competitive market in the U.S. facing today’s telecommunications company, including discussions of major factors in the changing market such as advanced access architectures, super-competitors, and overbuild;
  • A detailed approach to business transformation planning – a “how to”;
  • A major section will describe the process of “Vision Planning” – a technique for transformation planning;
  • A survey of what major players are doing in business transformation planning;
  • Interviews with some of the top thinkers in the telecommunications business today.

The history of the networking business is largely based on network evolution steps that were determined by the geniuses at Bell Labs. Another group of geniuses at the same institution determined end-user (station apparatus) capabilities. It has been said that there have been three network designs: the telegraph network, the telephone network, and the Internet network. Each had its particular end-user apparatus: the telegraph, the telephone, and the computer. As we have changed from each of these paradigms to the next, we have seen massive business transformations by the major players. Some made the transformation; they survived and prospered; some did not and died. This report is about how to make those transformations.

There are now competitive networks to the business and the residence, and there are hundreds, maybe thousands, of companies devoted to the development of station apparatus to meet customers’ needs as they see them. (Most of this station apparatus is not even called that, but is rather called computers, DVRs, Wii, routers, over-the-top video, etc.) Network evolution, now, is driven by the competitive desire of the multiple network providers to have networks that are capable of interfacing with this station apparatus. For telcos and all companies involved in the telecommunications business, this drastically changed environment requires that they change their businesses if they are to survive and prosper. We will devote a major section of this report to discussing the current face of the telecommunication market, because that understanding is essential to beginning a transformation project.

This series of reports is being prepared by Clifford Holliday, a writer and analyst for IGI. His many previous projects have included the massive Lightwave Series of Reports, the recent ROADM Series of Reports, and the AAA Series of Reports. Mr. Holliday spent many years as the VP in charge of technology planning in the Business Development department of GTE. He has been involved in or led at least seven different major “transformation” projects, including “PIP” – Performance Improvement Projects – Winning Connection I and II, WINS, and Technology Reorganization, as well as projects in the energy sector.

This series consists of the following:

  • Next-Generation Carrier's Network – Planning for Business Transformation” — This is a comprehensive report on how to approach transformation planning, and on the next-generation network that is the result of transformation planning. This is the all-encompassing report that covers all of the related topics. It is the keystone to the Information Gatekeeper’s Series on Transformation Planning.

  • Next-Generation Carrier’s Network – Architectures, Economics, and Forecasts” — This report is devoted to discussing and forecasting the NGN. It discusses the major systems and technologies that will be involved; it provides forecasts for the most important of these technologies; it discusses architectural options; it forecasts market impacts on the NGN, including capital forecasts and economic analysis of major NGN options; and it provides a detailed listing of many of the major vendors of the NGN. In addition, it discusses the drivers for changing networks and provides graphic views of how our networks have changed and are going to change. This report is now available from IGI.
  • The Telecommunications Market Today” — This is the first of a series of reports devoted to telecom business transformation and next-generation networks. This is a general report on the status of today’s (2009) telecommunications market, with an emphasis on those changes that are driving the market. It includes extensive forecasts, especially CapEx forecasts.

  • Business Transformation Planning” — This report is a how-to report on the transformation planning process. It contains the directions on how a transformation project must start and on how to accomplish it. It includes quotes from exclusive interviews with some of the best thinkers in the business today.

Table of Contents




The Lightwave Network

The Lightwave Series of Reports

General Reports on the Network
General Market Reports
Specific Systems Reports


The Impact of Competitive Networks

Transformation Planning

Customer is King!
This Report

The Face of Network Competition

This Chapter

The Face of Network Competition – Market Structure Today

RBOCs’ Multidimensional Competitive Struggle

Post-merger Competition

RBOC Purchase of IXCs

RBOCs vs. Cable Companies

Advanced Access Architecture Plans

RBOCs Are Becoming Wireless Access Companies

RBOC Loss of Main Lines
It’s a Wireless Access Industry!
The Wireless Access Landscape
Forecast for Wireline to Wireless

The Super Competitors

Google Attacks – Google Voice
Forecast for Google Voice


Overbuild – How?
Overbuild - Significance
A New Type of Competition
Summary of Overbuild Forecasts

Summary of Forecasts – Face of the Market

General Economic Forecasts
Telecommunications Economic Forecasts - 2009
Advanced Access Architectures


Wireline to Wireless
Google Voice/Google Forecast



Market Intelligence

Market Structure

Business Vision

Vision Development

What Is Vision Planning?

Development of a Vision
Vision Planning – Examples

IBM Example
Lincoln Example from the Civil War

The Vision Planning Pyramid
The Vision Planning Process
Step 1. Vision Statement
Service Vision Example
Step 2. Develop a view of the future environment and test.
Step 3. Restatement
Step 4. Backwards deployment (Implementation Plan)

Service Implementation Plan Example

Summary of Vision Planning



Market Intelligence Feedback



General Economic Background

Telecom Economic Background

Possible Positives for Telecom in 2009

Telecommunications Economic Forecasts - 2009


BT (British Telecom) – “21CN’
NTT (Japan)
Orange/FT (French Telecom)
Telstra (Australian)

Table of Figures

Figure 1, Lightwave Network

Figure 2: Summary of Competitive Position

Figure 3: Revised Competitive Structure Due to IXC Purchases

Figure 4: RBOCs Subsume IXCs and CLECs

Figure 5: RBOCs vs. Cable Companies

Figure 6, Telcos vs. Cable Companies – 2009

Figure 7, Verizon Wireline vs. Data Revenues

Figure 8, Verizon Loss of Main Lines vs. Data Revenue

Figure 9, Wireless Competition

Figure 10, Forecast for Wireline to Wireless Migration

Figure 11, The Super Competitors

Figure 12, Google as a Serious Threat

Figure 13, Forecast for Google Voice

Figure 14, Verizon's NOOF Arrangement

Figure 15, Forecasted Overbuild Strategic Outcome

Figure 16, Planning Environment

Figure 17, IBM’s Gerstner’s Corollaries

Figure 18, Vision Planning Pyramid

Figure 19, Vision Planning Approach

Figure 20, Traditional Planning Approach

Figure 21, Tom Peter's List of Good Vision Attributes

Figure 22, Davenports’ Visioning Process

Figure 23, Service Vision Statement Example

Figure 24, Vision Statement Examples

Figure 25, Example of Vision Statement and Implementation Plan
for Service

Figure 26, Summary of Points about Vision

Figure 27, Marketstructure

Figure 28, Planning Environment – Completed Cycle

Figure 29, Telecommunications Economic Forecasts

Free Telecom Info

Business Transformation Planning

The Telecommunications
Market Today

Next Generation Carrier's Network - Architectures, Economics and Forecasts
Next Generation
Carrier's Network:
Planning for Business Transformation

Is Google Going to Capture Telephony?

Active Optical Cables 2009 Live Charts

Active Optical Cables
Market Report 2009

Advanced Access Architectures 2008: AT&T, Verizon and Qwest Plans and Forecasts
Advanced Access Architectures 2008: AT&T, Verizon and Qwest Plans and Forecasts
FTTP/ FTTN: The RBOCs' Advanced Access Architectures - Equipment and Fiber Requirements
Cost Analysis of RBOC’s Advanced Access Architectures: FTTP, FTTN, FTTC
Bandwidth Needs Analysis of the RBOCs' Advanced Access Architectures: FTTP and FTTN
WiMAX: The Broadband Wireless MAN
The 4G Era: 802.16e
Market and Technology Assessment