Overview
This report boldly tells exactly how to do transformation planning. It is written by an author who has been involved in (often as a leader, but also as a follower) many transformation projects in several different venues. He has also been deeply involved in all phases of telephony planning for over 40 years. This report is devoted to exploring the planning process devoted to telecommunications business transformation. The techniques and steps described herein will guide the firm in the process, but the actual work must be done on an individual basis. In general, business transformation planning has many outputs, and influences many (maybe all) processes in a business, but in telecommunications, business transformation planning must also involve, as one of its outputs, the development of a next-generation network, since the nature of the future network must reflect the new business plan.
Unlike in the past, the development of these future networks is based on customers’ needs and business vision, as opposed to technological possibilities and cost efficiencies. These two ingredients (customers’ needs and business vision), along with an understanding of competitors’ positions, are the basis of planning for future networks today.
Report Features
We will review the techniques for transformation planning and some of the drivers in today’s market for that planning activity. This development of techniques will include:
- The description of the planning environment – A framework that outlines the steps in the planning process;
- The general forecast for the U.S. economy and particularly the U.S. telcos;
- The competitive market in the U.S. facing today’s telecommunications company, including discussions of major factors in the changing market such as advanced access architectures, super-competitors, and overbuild;
- A detailed approach to business transformation planning – a “how to”;
- A major section will describe the process of “Vision Planning” – a technique for transformation planning;
- A survey of what major players are doing in business transformation planning;
- Interviews with some of the top thinkers in the telecommunications business today.
The history of the networking business is largely based on network evolution steps that were determined by the geniuses at Bell Labs. Another group of geniuses at the same institution determined end-user (station apparatus) capabilities. It has been said that there have been three network designs: the telegraph network, the telephone network, and the Internet network. Each had its particular end-user apparatus: the telegraph, the telephone, and the computer. As we have changed from each of these paradigms to the next, we have seen massive business transformations by the major players. Some made the transformation; they survived and prospered; some did not and died. This report is about how to make those transformations.
There are now competitive networks to the business and the residence, and there are hundreds, maybe thousands, of companies devoted to the development of station apparatus to meet customers’ needs as they see them. (Most of this station apparatus is not even called that, but is rather called computers, DVRs, Wii, routers, over-the-top video, etc.) Network evolution, now, is driven by the competitive desire of the multiple network providers to have networks that are capable of interfacing with this station apparatus. For telcos and all companies involved in the telecommunications business, this drastically changed environment requires that they change their businesses if they are to survive and prosper. We will devote a major section of this report to discussing the current face of the telecommunication market, because that understanding is essential to beginning a transformation project.
This series of reports is being prepared by Clifford Holliday, a writer and analyst for IGI. His many previous projects have included the massive Lightwave Series of Reports, the recent ROADM Series of Reports, and the AAA Series of Reports. Mr. Holliday spent many years as the VP in charge of technology planning in the Business Development department of GTE. He has been involved in or led at least seven different major “transformation” projects, including “PIP” – Performance Improvement Projects – Winning Connection I and II, WINS, and Technology Reorganization, as well as projects in the energy sector.
This series consists of the following:
- “Next-Generation Carrier's Network – Planning for Business Transformation” — This is a comprehensive report on how to approach transformation planning, and on the next-generation network that is the result of transformation planning. This is the all-encompassing report that covers all of the related topics. It is the keystone to the Information Gatekeeper’s Series on Transformation Planning.
- “Next-Generation Carrier’s Network – Architectures, Economics, and Forecasts” — This report is devoted to discussing and forecasting the NGN. It discusses the major systems and technologies that will be involved; it provides forecasts for the most important of these technologies; it discusses architectural options; it forecasts market impacts on the NGN, including capital forecasts and economic analysis of major NGN options; and it provides a detailed listing of many of the major vendors of the NGN. In addition, it discusses the drivers for changing networks and provides graphic views of how our networks have changed and are going to change. This report is now available from IGI.
- “The Telecommunications Market Today” — This is the first of a series of reports devoted to telecom business transformation and next-generation networks. This is a general report on the status of today’s (2009) telecommunications market, with an emphasis on those changes that are driving the market. It includes extensive forecasts, especially CapEx forecasts.
- “Business Transformation Planning” — This report is a how-to report on the transformation planning process. It contains the directions on how a transformation project must start and on how to accomplish it. It includes quotes from exclusive interviews with some of the best thinkers in the business today.
Table of Contents
TABLE OF CONTENTS
TABLE OF FIGURES
THE LIGHTWAVE SERIES OF REPORTS
The Lightwave Network
The Lightwave Series of Reports
General Reports on the Network
General Market Reports
Specific Systems Reports
INTRODUCTION
The Impact of Competitive Networks
Transformation Planning
Customer is King!
This Report
The Face of Network Competition
This Chapter
The Face of Network Competition – Market Structure Today
RBOCs’ Multidimensional Competitive Struggle
Post-merger Competition
RBOC Purchase of IXCs
RBOCs vs. Cable Companies
Advanced Access Architecture Plans
RBOCs Are Becoming Wireless Access Companies
RBOC Loss of Main Lines
It’s a Wireless Access Industry!
The Wireless Access Landscape
Forecast for Wireline to Wireless
The Super Competitors
Google Attacks – Google Voice
Forecast for Google Voice
Overbuild
Overbuild – How?
Overbuild - Significance
A New Type of Competition
Summary of Overbuild Forecasts
Summary of Forecasts – Face of the Market
General Economic Forecasts
Telecommunications Economic Forecasts - 2009
Advanced Access Architectures
AT&T
Verizon
Qwest
Wireline to Wireless
Google Voice/Google Forecast
Overbuilding
BUSINESS TRANSFORMATiON PLANNING – HOW TO
PLANNING ENVIRONMENT
Market Intelligence
Market Structure
Business Vision
Vision Development
What Is Vision Planning?
Development of a Vision
Vision Planning – Examples
IBM Example
Lincoln Example from the Civil War
The Vision Planning Pyramid
The Vision Planning Process
Step 1. Vision Statement
Service Vision Example
Step 2. Develop a view of the future environment and test.
Step 3. Restatement
Step 4. Backwards deployment (Implementation Plan)
Service Implementation Plan Example
Summary of Vision Planning
Marketstructure
Implementation
Market Intelligence Feedback
COMPLETED CYCLE OF THE PLANNING ENVIRONMENT
GENERAL US ECONOMIC FORECAST
General Economic Background
Telecom Economic Background
Possible Positives for Telecom in 2009
Telecommunications Economic Forecasts - 2009
SURVEY OF BUSINESS TRANSFORMATION ACTIVITIES BY MAJOR PLAYERS
AT&T
BT (British Telecom) – “21CN’
Comcast
NTT (Japan)
Orange/FT (French Telecom)
Telstra (Australian)
Verizon
Qwest
Ciena
NeoPhotonics
Table of Figures
Figure 1, Lightwave Network
Figure 2: Summary of Competitive Position
Figure 3: Revised Competitive Structure Due to IXC Purchases
Figure 4: RBOCs Subsume IXCs and CLECs
Figure 5: RBOCs vs. Cable Companies
Figure 6, Telcos vs. Cable Companies – 2009
Figure 7, Verizon Wireline vs. Data Revenues
Figure 8, Verizon Loss of Main Lines vs. Data Revenue
Figure 9, Wireless Competition
Figure 10, Forecast for Wireline to Wireless Migration
Figure 11, The Super Competitors
Figure 12, Google as a Serious Threat
Figure 13, Forecast for Google Voice
Figure 14, Verizon's NOOF Arrangement
Figure 15, Forecasted Overbuild Strategic Outcome
Figure 16, Planning Environment
Figure 17, IBM’s Gerstner’s Corollaries
Figure 18, Vision Planning Pyramid
Figure 19, Vision Planning Approach
Figure 20, Traditional Planning Approach
Figure 21, Tom Peter's List of Good Vision Attributes
Figure 22, Davenports’ Visioning Process
Figure 23, Service Vision Statement Example
Figure 24, Vision Statement Examples
Figure 25, Example of Vision Statement and Implementation Plan
for Service
Figure 26, Summary of Points about Vision
Figure 27, Marketstructure
Figure 28, Planning Environment – Completed Cycle
Figure 29, Telecommunications Economic Forecasts
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