Overview
This is the first of a major series of reports to be published by Information Gatekeepers on the subject of telco business transformation and the next-generation network. Many of the world’s telcos are now involved in redefining the way they do business and the kind of network they need in their planned new environment. This series of reports will be a “How To” manual as well as a report on activities by the various major players, with forecasts for the resulting next-generation network.
This series consists of the following:
- “Next-Generation Carrier's Network – Planning for Business Transformation” — This is a comprehensive report on how to approach transformation planning, and on the next-generation network that is the result of transformation planning. This is the all-encompassing report that covers all of the related topics. It is the keystone to the Information Gatekeeper’s Series on Transformation Planning.
- “Next-Generation Carrier’s Network – Architectures, Economics, and Forecasts” — This report is devoted to discussing and forecasting the NGN. It discusses the major systems and technologies that will be involved; it provides forecasts for the most important of these technologies; it discusses architectural options; it forecasts market impacts on the NGN, including capital forecasts and economic analysis of major NGN options; and it provides a detailed listing of many of the major vendors of the NGN. In addition, it discusses the drivers for changing networks and provides graphic views of how our networks have changed and are going to change. This report is now available from IGI.
- “The Telecommunications Market Today” — This is the first of a series of reports devoted to telecom business transformation and next-generation networks. This is a general report on the status of today’s (2009) telecommunications market, with an emphasis on those changes that are driving the market. It includes extensive forecasts, especially CapEx forecasts.
- “Business Transformation Planning” — This report is a how-to report on the transformation planning process. It contains the directions on how a transformation project must start and on how to accomplish it. It includes quotes from exclusive interviews with some of the best thinkers in the business today.
This series of reports is being prepared by Clifford Holliday, a writer and analyst for IGI. His many previous projects have included the massive Lightwave Series of Reports, the recent ROADM Series of Reports, and the AAA Series of Reports. Mr. Holliday spent many years as the VP in charge of technology planning in the Business Development department of GTE. He was involved in or led at least seven different major “transformation” projects, including “PIP” — Performance Improvement Projects — Winning Connection I and II, WINS, and Technology Reorganization. His background and expertise in this area are the match of any practitioner today.
To begin a transformation project, one must consider the market facing the business. Therefore, this first report in the Transformation Series deals with the telecom market situation today. Later reports in this series will consider other aspects of the transformation process, including the planning environment, goals setting, the next-generation network, the next-generation network technologies, and next-generation vendors.
Although this report will consider several important market impacts, the most current is the announcement by Google of Google Voice. For some years, this analyst, as well as others, has been watching Google for an entry into telecommunications. Most of their business is telecommunications-based, so it is a natural fit. Our last report (in 2005) on the general telecom market situation, “Next Generation Network - Will the RBOCs get Googled Up?”, predicted the rise of a class of “super-competitors” to the RBOCs led by Google. That still is a good forecast, and it is beginning to happen with Google.
Google and the RBOCs
In 2007, Google purchased a small startup called Grand Central. Grand Central provided a service that allowed calls to follow a user to different phones, and visual voicemail. In early March 2009, Google announced that it had now rebranded the service to Google Voice and added a number of new features. Early reporting on the features included free calling within the United States, extremely cheap international calling, and many advanced call- and phone-management capabilities. Although not yet available to the general public (it is said that it will be in a few weeks), the threat is clear. Google is indicating that it will give away the entire voice business (at least within the United States) just to get an added advertising platform.
How do you compete with 'Free'?
Can the RBOCs and other telcos compete with “free”? What are the implications for the overall telecom business? In 2005, we issued a report, “The Next Generation Network - Will the RBOCs be Googled Up?”, suggesting in the section on competition that Google would become a “super competitor” and would attack the telcos’ market. It appears that is now happening, and this report provides extensive forecasts as to our view of the outcome of this attack and other market forces currently in play.
Report Features
This report will attempt to answer these questions, in the broader context of the overall competitive environment of U.S. telephony today. In addition to the “super-competitors,” we feel that the following are the major issues in today’s competitive structure in telecommunications:
- Telcos become wireless, rather than wireline companies;
- The Advanced Access Architecture deployments being undertaken by the major RBOCs and many smaller telcos;
- Overbuilding by major telcos;
- The emergence of the “super-competitors.”
This report will address each of these areas and provide forecasts as to our expectations for each. Because of the overriding importance of the state of the U.S. (and world) economy, we will begin with a review of our forecasts for the nation’s economy as well as its impact on telephony. That portion of the report will also provide our forecast for capital spending over the next five years. The report will then continue with a review of the current telecom market structure; with that background, we will then address each of the above-listed issues.
Table of Contents
Table of Contents
Table of Figures
The Lightwave Network Series of Reports
The Lightwave Network
The Lightwave Series of Reports
General Reports on the Network
General Market Reports
Specific Systems Reports
Introduction
The Telco Business Transformation and Next Generation Network Series of Reports
Google and the RBOCs
How do you compete with “Free?”
This Report
US Telecommunications Economic Forecast
General Economic Background
Telecom Economic Background
Possible Positives for Telecom in 2009
Telecommunications Capital Forecast
Telecommunications Economic Forecasts Summary
Telecommunications Economic Forecasts - 2009
The Face of Network Competition – Market Structure Today
RBOCs’ Multidimensional Competitive Struggle
Post-merger Competition
RBOC Purchase of IXCs
RBOCs vs. Cable Companies
Advanced Access Architecture Plans
AAA Deployment Forecast Summary
AT&T
Verizon
Qwest
Forecast Size of Deployments
Forecast of Homes Passed
Penetration Rates
RBOCs Are Becoming Wireless Access Companies
RBOC Loss of Main Lines
It’s a Wireless Access Industry!
The Wireless Access Landscape
Forecast for Wireline to Wireless
The Super Competitors
Google Attacks – Google Voice
Forecast for Google Voice
Forecast for Google Voice
Overbuild
Overbuild – How?
Overbuild - Significance
A New Type of Competition
Summary of Overbuild Forecasts
Summary of Forecasts
General Economic Forecasts
Telecommunications Economic Forecasts - 2009
Advanced Access Architectures
AT&T
Verizon
Qwest
Wireline to Wireless
Google Voice/Google Forecast
Overbuilding
Table of Figures
Figure 1, Lightwave Network
Figure 2, Telecommunication Capital Expenditures Actual and Forecast
Figure 3, Telecommunications Economic Forecasts
Figure 4: Summary of Competitive Position
Figure 5: Revised Competitive Structure Due to IXC Purchases
Figure 6: RBOCs Subsume IXCs and CLECs
Figure 7: RBOCs vs. Cable Companies
Figure 8, Telcos vs. Cable Companies – 2009
Figure 9: Forecast Homes Passed Cumulative — All Technologies
Figure 10: Forecast Homes Passed Annually — By Company — All Technologies
Figure 11: FTTX vs. High-speed Accesses vs. US Households
Figure 12, Verizon Wireline vs. Data Revenues
Figure 13, Verizon Loss of Main Lines vs. Data Revenue
Figure 14, Wireless Competition
Figure 15, Forecast for Wireline to Wireless Migration
Figure 16, The Super Competitors
Figure 17, Google as a Serious Threat
Figure 18, Forecast for Google Voice
Figure 19, Verizon's NOOF Arrangement
Figure 20, Forecasted Overbuild Strategic Outcome |
